The developments in the geopolitical arena in the passing year continue to pose significant dangers and challenges to Israel and the Jewish people. There is a continuation and often exacerbation of negative trends in geopolitical complexes that are relevant to Israel and the Jewish people:
- The Global Complex, where the erosion in the power and international standing of the US – the superpower whose friendship and aid to Israel are extremely critical, and which is also the home of nearly half of the Jewish people who are enjoying unprecedented thriving – continues.
- The Middle-Eastern Complex, where Iran continues to make progress towards acquiring nuclear weapons and increases its subversion in a region that is fraught with instability, extremism and terrorism; a region that is also revealing a new regional assertiveness by Turkey, characterized by Islamic and anti-Israeli overtones.
- The Israeli-Arab Conflict Complex, where the lack of a solution continues to pose a threat to Israel’s security and Jewish-democratic nature, helping to fuel the de-legitimization phenomena against Israel; concurrently, the possibility of reaching a decision point regarding the core issues of the permanent settlements is posing difficult dilemmas, some of which have a significant Jewish dimension.
- The Jerusalem-Washington-US Jewry Relationship Triangle Complex, which is a crucial strategic resource for the strength of Israel and the Jewish people that could face difficult challenges in the coming year.
These complexes are inevitably affected by each other. A large part of the trends taking place within them is not responsive to any intervention measures by Israel and the Jewish people, but in a limited number of cases, the policy pursued by Israel and the Jewish people could have a major impact. The year ahead could bring to maturation several critical processes which would necessitate either-or decisions whose influence on Israel and the Jewish people would be fateful.