What is the anticipated demographic evolution of the Israeli population over the next two decades? We make use of the Central Bureau of Statistics population projections to answer this question. It must be noted that projection is not prophecy; rather, population projections are a mathematical exercise that takes into account the size of the population (by age cohort and sex) at a given starting point and factors in the demographic components of fertility, mortality, and international migration to calculate the increase or decrease of people for the projection period. It is common to utilize alternative scenarios regarding the components of demographic change (low, medium, high). In CBS projections, each scenario includes different assumptions regarding fertility and international migration; the level of mortality is similar for all scenarios. Below we present the medium projection.
This scenario postulates that the population of the Israel, 8.3 million in 2015, will grow to almost 10 million (9.8) by 2025, and to 11.4 million in 2035. In terms of percentages, in the first decade of the projection the population is expected to increase by 19 percent, and by an expected 16 percent in the second decade.
The non-Jewish population is expected to increase more rapidly than the Jewish population. Hence, the share of Jews (including those of “no religion”) is likely to decline by one percent every decade, i.e., from 79 percent in 2015 to 77 percent in 2035.