Project Head: Shmuel Rosner
Participants: Ghila Amati | Nadia Beider | Ariel Bendor | Eliran Carsenti | Shimrit Cohen-Barbi | Janan Danial | Dana Fahn-Luzon | Shlomo Fischer | Shuki Friedman | Avi Gil | Yehonatan Givati | Noa Israeli | Eli Kannai | Dov Maimon | Robert Neufeld | Tamir Pardo | Rivka Ravitz | Daniela Regev | Yael Ribner | Lipaz Rotkovsy | John Ruskay | Jonathan Saidel | Roy Schondorf | Amit Shoval | Noah Slepkov | Yedidia Stern | Shalom Salomon Wald | Haim Zicherman | Eldar Zilber
The internal discord that erupted in Israel following the government’s announcement of its plan to overhaul the judicial system has had a negative impact on Israel’s international status, its relations with the United States, its economy, its deterrence, and its relations with Diaspora Jewry.
The dispute is raging at a time when processes are underway globally and in the Middle East that challenge Israel’s security and the Jewish people’s resilience. These threats require cohesion and a focusing of resources that have eroded due to the internal crisis.
Alongside the crisis, the opportunity for a positive historical turning-point has arisen in Israel this year – an initiative to promote a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. The agreement, which the U.S. is working to advance, would anchor Israel’s acceptance as a country of normal status in a region that had denied its very existence, and would also provide legitimacy for other Arab and Muslim countries to normalize their relations with Israel. The cooperation that will be required between Washington and Jerusalem for this agreement to be finalized would also herald a positive development in Israel’s relations with the U.S., which in recent months have been rife with tension.
In the regional arena, there has been a trend toward pragmatic reconciliation between longtime adversaries (such as Saudi Arabia and Iran); at the same time, Iran is proceeding with its nuclear weapons project and improving its geopolitical standing. Israel faces the danger of a multi-front security deterioration (frequent Hezbollah provocations on the northern border intensify the danger), while also having to cope with Palestinian terrorism (strikingly demonstrated by the decision to launch Operation Shield and Arrow against the Islamic Jihad faction). Despite these looming shadows, it should be stressed that Israel is still considered a regional power its neighbors wish to rely upon and with which they want to cooperate (the stability of the Abraham Accords testifies to this trend).
Substantial effort should be invested in ending Israel’s sociopolitical crisis with a compromise, due (among other reasons) to its negative impact on Israel’s geopolitical resilience.
Explanation: The constitutional crisis is eroding Israel’s strength, international standing, and economy, but more than anything else it highlights the weight of intra-Israeli solidarity in the strategic-resilience equation. It is therefore urgent that the process currently dividing Israeli society be halted.
When decisions are being made on domestic matters, the government should be furnished with a careful analysis of those decisions’ impact on Israel’s geopolitical stability.
Explanation: As with the previous recommendation, the past few months have shown us that decisions on domestic issues have complex strategic and international costs. This fact sometimes surprises decision makers who are not aware of the full scope of implications their decisions carry. An effort should therefore be made to upgrade preparatory work so that the relevant information will be provided to ministers in government discussions.
Efforts should be focused on reaching a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Explanation: A peace agreement with the oil power that is home to the two holiest sites in Islam would constitute a historic turning point for Israel’s standing in the Arab and Islamic world. The agreement would hold the power to weaken and isolate Iran, and help heal the rifts that have arisen in Jerusalem-Washington relations.
Israeli Interference, or even the appearance of interference, in the 2024 U.S. elections must be avoided.
Explanation: The issue of Israel-U.S. relations may come up in the American elections as a bone of contention between the parties. The temptation to voice positions that could be interpreted as support for one side or the other may be great, but Israel must adhere to the fundamental principle that has been at the foundation of its special relationship with the U.S. – namely, that it must cultivate bipartisan sympathy.
