Project Head: Shmuel Rosner
Participants: Ghila Amati | Nadia Beider | Ariel Bendor | Eliran Carsenti | Shimrit Cohen-Barbi | Janan Danial | Dana Fahn-Luzon | Shlomo Fischer | Shuki Friedman | Avi Gil | Yehonatan Givati | Noa Israeli | Eli Kannai | Dov Maimon | Robert Neufeld | Tamir Pardo | Rivka Ravitz | Daniela Regev | Yael Ribner | Lipaz Rotkovsy | John Ruskay | Jonathan Saidel | Roy Schondorf | Amit Shoval | Noah Slepkov | Yedidia Stern | Shalom Salomon Wald | Haim Zicherman | Eldar Zilber
The Demographic Gauge has been adjusted in a positive direction this year, thanks to a return to earlier demographic patterns as the Covid pandemic waned. The global Jewish population is growing, as indicated by data published in 2022 based on population censuses conducted in 2021 in Australia1, the UK,2 and Canada.3 The mortality rate has declined and may even remain lower than usual due to excess mortality during the pandemic, especially among the elderly and those with comorbidities.
In Israel, the data do not indicate a drop in the fertility rate. It is more difficult to assess fertility trends for Diaspora Jews – due both to a lack of data and to the difficulty of estimating the actual fertility rate, which depends not only on the number of births, but also on the chance that the children will continue to identify as Jews in adulthood. Data from the United States indicate that most Jews with one Jewish parent do identify as Jews,4 which makes a certain degree of Jewish population growth possible despite low fertility levels.
In 2022, there was a sharp increase in the number of immigrants to Israel, which continued in the first six months of 2023, mainly due to the war in Ukraine as migration from Western countries fell back slightly. The most significant wave of Jewish migration (to Israel and other countries, mostly in Europe) was indeed from Ukraine. The war also increased the rate of immigration to Israel from Russia and, to some extent, from Belarus. These trends are accelerating the reduction of what were, two hundred years ago, the largest concentrations of the global Jewish population, and reinforce the phenomenon of Jewish concentration in two main countries: Israel and the United States.
An effort should be made to assist CIS Jews in distress.
Explanation: The war in Ukraine caused a large migration wave to Israel from Ukraine and Russia and, to some extent, from Belarus. Ukrainian olim in particular are in financial straits and need state assistance. Two-thirds of them are women,5 a quarter are under 18, and another fifth are over 656 – a mix that is the result of many families deciding to split up (men of army age remained in Ukraine to fight). The longer the war goes on, the better the refugees, especially the children among them, will acclimate to their new surroundings, and their extended stay here will lower the likelihood of them deciding to return to Ukraine once the war ends. Accordingly, Israel should plan its policy on post-war family reunification.
At the same time, the war and the waves of emigration have greatly weakened the Jewish communities in the CIS. Emigration to Israel is perceived by many young Russians as a way to evade the military draft, and this is not only causing the country’s Jewish community to shrink, it is also driving a growing exodus of young people, leaving behind an aging population. Older Jews remaining in Russia, who needed assistance even before the war, are now suffering from the impact of the international sanctions on Russia, which have worsened the country’s economic situation and are making it hard for Jewish aid organizations to help them.
A policy for addressing the growing number of Israelis who identify as Jews but are not recognized as such must be formulated.
Explanation: The challenge posed by Israelis who identify as Jews but are not recognized as Jews per religious law is growing more urgent. The size of Israel’s population of “others,” which consists mainly of CIS immigrants and their descendants who are not halachically recognized as Jews, passed the half-million mark at the end of 2022.7 Most of the growth of this population is the result of increased Aliyah due to the war in Ukraine, and its consequences extend beyond the familiar difficulties involved in the economic and cultural absorption of immigrants; there are also legal issues pertaining to citizenship, housing, personal status, and an array of bureaucratic challenges.
Endnote
1. Peter Kohn. Record number of Jews. The Australian Jewish News (June 30, 2022)
2. David Graham & Jonathan Boyd. Jews in Britain in 2021: First results from the census of England and Wales. JPR: Institute for Jewish Policy Research
3. Robert Brym. What the 2021 census reveals about Canada’s Jewish community – as examined by sociology professor Robert Brym. The Canadian Jewish News (December 6, 2022)
4. Pew Research Center. Jewish Americans in 2020 (May 11, 2021)
5. Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. Media Release. Immigration to Israel 2021 and Immigration to Israel Due to the War in Ukraine in 2022 (10.8.2022). [Hebrew]
6. Ayala Eliyahu. Data on Immigration to Israel from Ukraine and Russia in 2022. Knesset Research and Information Center (12.12.2022). [Hebrew]
7. Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. Media Release. Population of Israel on the Eve of 2023. (29.12.2022). [Hebrew]
