Project leader: Yaakov Katz
The war in the Gaza Strip and the tension in the North, in the aftermath of the October 7 massacre in Israel, was this year’s dominant development in terms of its impact on the State of Israel and the Jewish people. The war – which saw Israel engage in combat with enemies on several different and simultaneous fronts – has had ramifications for Israel’s security and domestic situation, its diplomatic relations with other countries (primarily the United States), as well as Diaspora Jewry.
Geopolitics
As of this writing, the war is not yet over, and its troubling ramifications can be seen across all aspects of Israel’s national resilience: security, the economy, internal solidarity, international standing, and the strength of the strategic “triangle”: Jerusalem-Washington-American Jewry. Since October 7, international support for Israel has eroded, the country’s status has deteriorated greatly, and Israel has drawn harsh criticism from its best friends, first and foremost the U.S., which has delayed arms deliveries as a means of exerting pressure. The peace agreements with Arab countries are still in place but are showing signs of fracture.
Cohesion
Against the backdrop of October 7 and the war that followed – which initially united and mobilized Israelis – and have transformed the ideological and social rifts that had been in Israel into an actual struggle. However, disputes over the management of the war and the country went into emergency mode that made compromise difficult. Israelis continue to express deep concern about the prevailing social tensions, and many of them feel that the state is in the throes of the worst crisis in its history.
Demography
While the growth rate of the Jewish community in Israel stood at 1.4% in 2023, the Jewish population is in decline in many other countries and is sharpest in Russia and Ukraine, where there has been large-scale emigration in the last few years. Natural forces such as mortality and fertility bring about slow changes in population size, while migration can exert a strong effect in a much shorter timeframe. Similarly, emigration from South Africa has led to an annual decline of approximately 0.9% in the size of the Jewish community. Aging communities in Europe, such as in Hungary, Poland, and the post-Soviet states, are currently shrinking more slowly due to demographic forces as older people die without being replaced
Identity
Until recently, it was assumed that if one felt “Jewish” one identified with the agenda of the organized Jewish community and Israel. Since October 7, with the visible presence of self-identifying Jewish groups in anti-Israel demonstrations, young Jews realize that one can feel Jewish while actively opposing the agenda of Israel and the official Jewish community. Thus, Jewish identity is taking on a new dynamic.
Resources
In 2023, the threats to the Israeli economy were related to a potentially diminished international appeal of doing business in Israel in light of the attempted judicial reform. But in 2024, there was tangible damage to the economy, especially in the south, in the north and in the tourism industry, the recovery of which depends on resolving the security situation. The material assistance received from the United States and other countries and the solidarity coalition of Diaspora Jewry offset the economic damage to some extent.
Antisemitism
Since October 7, world Jewry is experiencing an antisemitic moment as anti-Jewish incidents have surged to levels not seen since World War II. Thirty percent of American Jewish parents advise their children to hide their identity on university campuses while half of London’s Jews are contemplating emigration. Additionally, one in three German Jewish institutions has been attacked. In France, antisemitic incidents have spiked by 1000%.