Project leader: Yaakov Katz
The horrific October 7 Hamas massacre, and the war it sparked, rendered the past year pivotal with respect to the geopolitical situation of Israel and the Jewish people. The war is not yet over, but its troubling ramifications can be seen across all aspects of Israel’s national resilience: security, the economy, internal solidarity, international standing, and the strength of the strategic triangular relationship: Jerusalem-Washington-American Jewry.
The Hamas onslaught took place at a time of domestic crisis in Israel, which began with a governmental plan to upend the judicial system (January 2023). The plan sparked months of protests that illustrated Israel’s social and political rifts. The past year demonstrated the danger of a multi-front war with a concurrent erosion of the image of the IDF and the country’s intelligence services in the eyes of friends and foes alike. In Gaza, a war is being waged whose goals have yet to be achieved. In Israel’s north a conflict with Hezbollah is underway, in which towns on the confrontation line have been abandoned and 80,000 residents have become refugees within their own country. Iran’s retaliation for the killing the Quds Force commander in Lebanon and Syria, changed the face of the Israel-Iran conflict.
Although the Iranian attack was largely thwarted, the mere fact that Iran launched, from its own territory, hundreds of missiles and drones bearing 60 tons of explosives constitutes a radical change in the “rules of the game,” posing a worrisome security challenge for Israel. The Houthis of Yemen, aided by Iranian arms, threaten all Israeli vessels in the Red Sea and fire missiles at Israel, while Shiite militias in Iraq, proxies of Teheran, also join in the missile attacks. The security situation in the West Bank is shaky; and security forces have to work intensively to halt Hamas’s attempts to ignite that front as well. Mounting violence on the part of Jewish elements in the territories is heightening the tensions.
In the months that have passed since October 7 international support for Israel has eroded, the country’s status has been greatly diminished, and Israel has drawn harsh criticism from its best friends, first and foremost the U.S., which has delayed some arms shipments as a means of exerting pressure. The peace agreements with Arab countries are still in place but are showing cracks. Antisemitism is worsening and instances of violence and hostility toward Diaspora Jews are commonplace. In the sphere of international law, Israeli leaders are being threatened with arrest for “war crimes and crimes against humanity.” The protracted war is harming Israel’s economy: increased defense spending, a lowered international credit rating accompanied by forecasts of a worsening deficit and inflationary pressure. The country’s internal unity has been compromised, anti-government demonstrations are being held even as the war rages, and the fate of the hostages and price of the deal to obtain their release from Hamas are fissuring Israeli society. Haredi non-conscription into the IDF threatens the stability of the government, which itself lacks broad public support and is marked by open tension between its component factions.
Within this dark picture there are, however, points of light: the harsh blows the IDF is delivering to Hamas; the steadfast mobilization of Israel’s reserve forces for the war; the spontaneous mobilization of Israeli civil society to aid those harmed by the Hamas offensive; the fact that there has been no slide into an all-out regional war (this could potentially change); the mobilization of international forces under U.S. leadership to address the Houthi threat and the action of those forces – with assistance from Arab states – to thwart the mid-April Iranian attack on Israel; the fact that Jewish-Arab relations within Israel have not deteriorated into violent confrontation; the peace agreements that have remained in place despite a cooling of relations and harsh criticism of Israel.
As a result of the above analysis, the Geopolitics Gauge needle was moved in a negative direction this year.
Trends and Recommendations
Efforts should be made to repair the resilience of the Jerusalem-Washington-American Jewry triangle.
Explanation: American proposals for a new regional architecture featuring the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia should be studied closely and carefully.
Cooperation with the United States on the establishment of a regional coalition that would more effectively curb Iranian aggression would also help heal the rifts that have erupted in the Israel-U.S. relationship. A peace agreement with Saudi Arabia would constitute a historic turning-point in Israel’s standing within the Arab and Islamic world.
There should be renewed discussion regarding a defensive alliance between Israel and the United States.
Explanation: The war has exposed Israel’s security dependence on the U.S. The alliance obviously sets limits on Israel’s independence of action, but it has advantages in terms of deterring Israel’s enemies and promoting regional calm. (The aim, of course, is an agreement that would minimally compromise Israel’s independence of action.)
Israel should avoid involvement, or even the appearance of involvement, in the U.S. elections.
Explanation: The issue of Israel-U.S. relations is a point of inter-party controversy. The temptation to voice opinions that could be interpreted as support for one side or the other may be high, but Israel should adhere to the founding principle that underlies its special relationship with the U.S., according to which Israel should cultivate bipartisan sympathy.