Project leader: Yaakov Katz
The global Jewish population is increasing, with population growth not only in Israel, the historic driver of the Jewish people’s increasing size, but also in countries that are home to some of the largest Jewish communities, such as the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
The growth rate of the Jewish community in Israel stood at 1.4% in 2023, significantly lower than the 1.7% rate recorded in 2022, which was a result of the particularly large wave of immigration from Ukraine and Russia that year. It is much harder to estimate the growth rates of Jewish populations outside of Israel, but there is consensus that there are now several Jewish communities outside of Israel that are growing. Like Israel, this growth is not solely dependent on immigration, as was the case in Germany over the past two decades, but from natural growth as the number of births outstrips the number of deaths, indicative of the vitality of Diaspora communities.
It must be noted that even where there is an increase in the size of the Jewish community, the rate of growth is much lower than in Israel. Population growth in Israel derives from a combination of natural growth, with relatively high fertility and low mortality in a youthful population, and a positive migration balance that includes more migration to Israel than emigration. The effects of fertility and mortality are easier to predict and suggest that the Israeli Jewish population will continue to grow at a rate that outstrips Diaspora communities. However, migration trends are harder to forecast, particularly in wake of the current war.
The Jewish population is in decline in several countries. The decline is sharpest in countries such as Russia and Ukraine, where there has been large-scale emigration in the last few years. Natural forces such as mortality and fertility bring about slow changes in population size, while migration can exert a strong effect in a much shorter timeframe. Similarly, emigration from South Africa has led to an annual decline of approximately 0.9% in the size of the Jewish community. Aging communities in Europe, such as in Hungary, Poland, and the post-Soviet states, are currently shrinking more slowly due to demographic forces as older people die without being replaced.
As a result of the above analysis, the Demography Gauge needle was moved in a positive direction this year.
Trends and Recommendations
Efforts should be made to facilitate Aliyah
In light of the current spike in antisemitic incidents worldwide, there will likely be increased interest in immigration to Israel. The Israeli government should take practical steps to aid the immigration and absorption of those who choose to build new lives in Israel. This will require a concerted effort to adjust the policies and approaches of existing governmental and non-governmental agencies to deal with a migration wave that differs significantly from previous ones in terms of economic status. Particular effort should be targeted toward young people, who are likely to be most affected by the higher rates of antisemitism among students relative to the general population. University and ulpan programs for young immigrants should be expanded.
New resources must be found to support declining Jewish communities
For those who choose to remain in declining communities, whether they are shrinking due to emigration, as in Russia and Ukraine, or shrinking more slowly due to negative natural growth in an aging community, efforts should be made to meet the needs of those who remain. Until now, much of that support has been tied to their status as Holocaust survivors. New resources and organizations will have to be established, or existing organizations will have to pivot to provide for elderly people who are too young to have been victims of the Holocaust but are aging and lack communal support.