Project leader: Yaakov Katz
Since the Hamas massacre on October 7, the United States and Israel appear closer than ever to a rupture in their relationship.
The good news is that the U.S. has never supported Israel as powerfully, generously, and effectively as it did in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack; during the extraordinary international coalition that repelled Iran’s missile barrage in mid-April 2024; this summer, when both Iran and Hezbollah threatened massive strikes; and in the resupply of ammunition and spare parts despite the challenges in the U.S. military supply chain.
The bad news is that the war has exposed fault lines in the U.S.-Israel alliance and within the Democratic establishment, not just within the “Squad.” The increasingly toxic polarized landscape in the U.S. and the moral panic in the media regarding the suffering of civilians in Gaza threaten to turn Israel into yet another partisan flashpoint. Pro-Israel Republicans fear that Vice President Kamala Harris represents a new generation of Democrats who don’t “feel it in their gut” when it comes to supporting Israel. Pro-Israel Democrats fear that isolationists and antisemites within Donald Trump’s coalition represent the true face of the Republican Party, which is dominated by the belief in “making America great again.”
Ongoing U.S. support for Israel and the rejection of antisemitism should drive the American Jewish community and Jewish organizations to stop preaching to the choir and expand their advocacy efforts.
However, the Jewish community must tread carefully in the 2024 election campaign, and even afterward. Both Republicans and Democrats could ultimately find themselves angry at “the Jews” and Israel, putting the Jewish community at risk of a serious split. The inability of most people on each side to listen to the concerns of the other is palpable. Jewish supporters of Harris are so convinced that Trump will destroy the U.S. and ultimately betray Israel, while Jewish Trump supporters are frustrated by what they see as global instability stemming from Biden-Harris leadership and Harris’s constant need to balance support for Israel with support for the Palestinians.
Indeed, as time passes, the disagreements between the two nations are becoming more visible and pronounced. Israel is seen as fighting without a clear strategic plan for “the day after,” from which tactical moves on the ground can be derived. Even after months of fighting in Gaza, the IDF has not achieved its set goals, and in the U.S. view, it is not taking sufficient care to protect innocent lives. The administration is frustrated by Israel’s lack of responsiveness to its requests, which comes across as Israeli ingratitude and disregard for American interests. Indeed, voices in the U.S., especially in academia, are calling for a reassessment of relations with Israel and for it to be treated like any other country, based solely on U.S. interests.
As a result of the above analysis, the Israel-U.S. Relationship Gauge needle was moved in a negative direction this year.