Less than two-thirds of Jewish Americans surveyed say they will vote for Harris, with about a quarter supporting Trump. Respondents signaling intention to vote for Trump place Israel as key factor, Harris voters to a lesser extent.
The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) studies trends among American Jews (who constitute almost half of the global Jewish population) through its monthly “Voice of the Jewish People” surveys. These surveys analyze responses according to key political and religious streams within American Judaism. Findings, weighted by religious affiliation (Reform, Conservative, ultra-Orthodox, etc.), show that nearly two-thirds (63%) intend to vote for Harris, while about a quarter (24%) plan to vote for Trump. The remaining respondents are undecided, plan to vote for other candidates, or do not intend to vote at all.
Support for Democrats among Jewish Americans remains a majority, but it has reached its lowest level in four decades (previously peaking at around 80%). Significant differences appear across groups on issues related to Israel and antisemitism. For instance, 95% of Jewish Americans who firmly support Trump regard Israel as a major voting issue, compared to 31% of firm Harris supporters. A similar disparity exists concerning antisemitism, with 89% of strong Trump supporters viewing it as a central issue, while only 39% of strong Harris supporters agree.
Support for Israel
Regarding US support for Israel, a gap is evident between those identifying as “centrist” or “conservative,” with most (73% and 93%, respectively) feeling that the US does not sufficiently support Israel, compared to self-identified “strong liberals,” among whom a record high of about one-third (34%) feel the US supports Israel “too much.”
When responses are weighted by religious stream, a slight majority (56%) believes that the US does not support Israel enough. Among strong Harris supporters, a slim majority (51%) feel that current support is “at the right level,” while over a quarter (28%) find it insufficient. Among Jewish Americans leaning toward Harris but not firmly committed, a larger majority (60%) perceive that US support for Israel is inadequate, likely contributing to their indecision.
The data also shows that few respondents believe US-Israel relations would improve under a Harris administration. Even among liberal or very liberal respondents—the most committed Harris supporters—only 10%-14% expect relations to improve. Conversely, among Trump voters, a large majority (over 90%) anticipate better relations with Israel if Trump is elected.
JPPI President, Prof. Yedidia Stern: “American Jewry is not monolithic. Conservatives who support Trump view Israel and antisemitism as primary factors when they vote. Liberal Harris supporters—the majority group—do not see Israel as central to their voting decisions. However, among ‘swing voters,’ a large majority believe that the Biden-Harris administration’s support for Israel has been insufficient. In a close race, stronger support for Israel could benefit Harris.”
Survey Editor, Shmuel Rosner, a Senior Fellow at JPPI: “The data shows that most Jewish Americans will vote for Kamala Harris. While her support may slightly decline from Biden’s 2020 levels, the shift won’t be dramatic. The bottom line is that most Jews still lean Democratic, even with broad consensus that a Harris administration could strain US-Israel relations. Many Harris voters are prepared to accept a possible deterioration in relations with Israel. The reason is that Trump voters place a far higher priority on Israel, seeing it as a central issue. Nearly all firm Trump voters (95%) say Israel is ‘one of the main voting issues,’ while among firm Harris supporters, this figure is a third (31%)—a finding from a survey of Jews relatively connected to the community and Israel (registered with JPPI’s Voice of the Jewish People panel).”