Any analysis of President Joe Biden\u2019s visit to Israel Wednesday must start with two propositions: American support is essential for Israel as it goes to war. American support is a means to an end \u2014 victory. It is not a substitute for victory.<\/p>\n
\u201cEntire families slain. Young people massacred while attending a musical festival to celebrate peace,\u201d he lamented. \u201cWomen raped, assaulted and paraded as trophies.\u201d<\/p>\n
At war, Israel needs American support for four main reasons: for diplomatic cover against the many forces that would aim to limit Israel\u2019s ability to fight, and would denounce and isolate it or even actively assist its enemies; for security aid in the form of ammunition and other material help; for a boost of deterrence against regional and global powers that might want to intervene against Israel; and, finally, for psychological support for a country that often feels isolated on the world stage.<\/p>\n
From the get-go, Biden rose to the occasion by provisioning Israel with these four essential ingredients for victory. He made\u00a0forceful speeches<\/a>, denouncing the butchery and vowing support (psychology). He immediately instructed the Pentagon to\u00a0supply Israel<\/a>\u00a0with essential supplies (material support). He\u00a0sent a message<\/a> to Israel\u2019s other enemies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Iranian regime, that the war must not escalate, and sent aircraft carriers to the region (deterrence). And by taking such a clear position, he set an example for other Western countries to follow (diplomacy).<\/p>\n In doing so, he\u2019s taken on considerable risk. He committed himself and the US to a certain cause, and now he has skin in the game. He compared\u00a0Hamas to ISIS<\/a>, more than hinting at how the battle must end (\u201celiminate Hamas completely<\/a>\u201d). And he warned Hezbollah not to force Israel to open a second front on the Lebanese border (\u201cDon\u2019t. don\u2019t, don\u2019t, don\u2019t<\/a>\u201d).<\/p>\n In doing so, he handed Iran an opportunity: Tehran could defy his warnings and present him with a dilemma. Would he deepen the US involvement in the crisis even further by, for example, ordering a strike by American forces on Hezbollah? Or maybe in such a case he\u2019d prefer to climb down the ladder of involvement \u2014 that was President Barack Obama\u2019s decision during the Syrian civil war, when he drew a \u201cred line<\/a>\u201d that the Syrians defied without punishment.<\/p>\n In an election season, what this means is that Biden took a huge gamble. Iran could make him seem like a second George W. Bush (too much war) or a second Obama (too little steadfastness). So in exchange for his staunch support and in recognition of his commitment, Israel will be asked to compromise on certain things that the administration deems important.<\/p>\n That is the risk Israel itself is taking by inviting American support and, specifically, the president, for a visit. Support comes with a price tag. There is an ongoing debate between Israeli and American officials about the exact terms under which humanitarian aid can enter the Gaza Strip. Israel wants stricter terms to guarantee that no aid is used to relieve the pressure on Hamas. The US is more sensitive to Arab opinion and would like Israel to make certain compromises to ensure the prevention of a humanitarian crisis.<\/p>\n There is also the question of the day after. Israel says its goal is toppling Hamas, and Biden is no doubt asking: What comes later? Biden himself initially\u00a0supported the US 2003 war in Iraq<\/a>\u00a0only to end up as the president who ordered the US pullout of Afghanistan. In the 20 years in between, he witnessed the two countries that the US invaded struggle to transform their leadership from one government to another. He is familiar with the cost involved, the chaos, the bloodshed. As a friend, and also as a leader much invested in Israel\u2019s objectives for the war, he surely wants to see a convincing answer to the question of the day after.<\/p>\n And that is where Israel is facing its own dilemma. To retain the much-needed American support, it must accommodate US requests and even demands. But Israel also must win a war \u2014 a war that was defined by some of Israel\u2019s leaders as \u201cexistential\u201d and is seen by most Israeli citizens as critical to its security. This means a constant balancing act.<\/p>\n To win the war without American support would be much more difficult and much more costly. To lose the war while retaining American support would be of no value.<\/p>\n