{"id":19437,"date":"2024-10-22T11:26:09","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T08:26:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/?p=19437"},"modified":"2024-12-03T14:25:23","modified_gmt":"2024-12-03T12:25:23","slug":"sinwar-check-nasrallah-check-what-comes-next-for-bibi-and-israel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/sinwar-check-nasrallah-check-what-comes-next-for-bibi-and-israel\/","title":{"rendered":"Sinwar, Check. Nasrallah, Check. What Comes Next for Bibi and Israel?"},"content":{"rendered":"If there was ever a moment ripe for launching the political process necessary to end the war, that moment is now<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is difficult to overstate the military achievements Israel has racked up over the past two months.<\/p>\n

From the remarkable pager attack against Hezbollah to the dismantling of its leadership \u2013 including the elimination of its devious and veteran leader Hassan Nasrallah \u2013 and the destruction of Hezbollah\u2019s most advanced long-range ballistic and cruise missiles, the IDF has dealt significant blows. The degradation of the group\u2019s infrastructure and tunnel networks in southern Lebanon has further underscored Israel\u2019s operational success.<\/p>\n

In Gaza, the situation is just as impressive, culminating in last week\u2019s elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, coinciding with the ongoing offensive in northern Gaza, where the IDF remains committed to thwarting the terror group\u2019s attempts to reconstitute itself.<\/p>\n

After a year of war, if there was ever a moment ripe for launching the political process necessary to end the war \u2013 preferably with a deal for the hostages \u2013 that moment is now. Israel\u2019s negotiation teams have been working feverishly since Sinwar\u2019s elimination to restart talks that had stalled for months owing to the discord between Sinwar and Hamas\u2019s leadership in Qatar. With Sinwar gone, there is a growing sense of optimism in Jerusalem that a breakthrough may be possible, and that whoever succeeds Sinwar will recognise that reaching a deal and ending the conflict is in his best interest.<\/p>\n

From the outset, it was evident that a political plan would be needed to preserve the IDF\u2019s hard-won gains on the battlefield. There is little doubt in Jerusalem that even after the war officially ends, the IDF will need to retain freedom to operate against Hamas, Hezbollah and their attempts to rebuild capabilities \u2013 whether in Gaza or along the northern border. The power vacuum left by the deaths of Sinwar and Nasrallah presents a unique opportunity for Israel and its allies to shape the future governance in Gaza and Lebanon. What those structures will look like remains uncertain, as Israel keeps its plans close to its chest, revealing little about the \u201cday after\u201d or which forces may be involved\u00a0\u2013 Palestinian, Emirati, Saudi or something else.<\/p>\n

Critics have sought to lay the blame for the hostages solely at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s feet but such claims are a gross exaggeration. The hostages are being held in tunnels beneath Gaza; for their release, Israel needs a partner on the other side willing to make a deal. As recently as last month, senior American officials stated unequivocally that it was not Netanyahu who was holding up a deal but Hamas, which consistently prevented negotiations. Israel, they noted, had made an effort to accommodate the terms of a potential swap.<\/p>\n

While a hostage deal requires Hamas, planning a post-war Gaza does not. What is required is a governing entity willing to take responsibility for the Gaza Strip, managing civilian life, reconstruction, the distribution of aid, and basic law enforcement. This new authority will need to do all this while understanding that Israel will continue to target Hamas and its efforts to rebuild its military infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Repeated Israeli incursions and airstrikes will undeniably pose challenges to the credibility of any new governing entity, which will have a hard time trying not to be seen as an Israeli puppet. However, that is the reality of the situation, and it underscores the need for close coordination between Israel and its allies.<\/p>\n

In Lebanon, Hezbollah is weakening, the loss of its leadership and financial centres in the IAF strikes on Sunday night, creates an opening to free the country from Iran\u2019s clutches. Achieving this requires a well-planned strategy. Will Israel push for a more robust United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War but failed to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding itself in southern Lebanon?
\nOr will it call for a more active role by France and the United States, with boots on the ground in Lebanon \u2013 not to protect Israel, but to give the Lebanese people a chance to restore their economy and heal their fractured society?<\/p>\n

Regardless of the approach, coordination between Israel, the US, France and others is indispensable, as is the need for the IDF to continue operating in southern Lebanon and along the border to prevent the re-establishment of terrorist infrastructure.<\/p>\n

This raises a crucial question: why does it appear that the bravery of the IDF in Gaza and Lebanon is not being matched by political courage in Jerusalem?<\/p>\n

While signs suggest that dialogue is happening behind the scenes \u2013 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was scheduled to visit Israel this week \u2013 the government must prioritise the nation\u2019s needs over its own political calculations.<\/p>\n

With the military successes in Gaza and Lebanon now is the time to roll out the day-after plans, which have the potential to pave the way for normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Could there be a more fitting outcome to this year than the promise of a brighter horizon for the region?<\/p>\n

Originally published by The Jewish Chronicle<\/a>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If there was ever a moment ripe for launching the political process necessary to end the war, that moment is now<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":15060,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","topics-islam-and-arab-world","topics-middle-east","topics-israel-relations","topics-leadership","library-op-ed","library-publications"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19437"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19437\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19827,"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19437\/revisions\/19827"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15060"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jppi.org.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}