Main Findings<\/strong><\/p>\n A general comment about the survey period: Data was collected between December 15 and 17. The survey was conducted a month before Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States, after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, during a period of drone and missile fire on Israel from Yemen, continued fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, and after the start of Netanyahu\u2019s testimony in his corruption trial. This month also saw reports of an approaching hostage-release deal.<\/p>\n Expectations Regarding the Upcoming Trump Administration<\/strong><\/p>\n This month, with the approach of Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration, our survey assessed respondent confidence regarding Trump\u2019s activities in a variety of spheres. Overall, and as might be expected, we see the level of confidence expressed by conservative Jews in Trump is significantly higher than among liberal Jews.<\/p>\n A similar finding also emerges when the data is broken down by religiosity level: the further one moves on the religious spectrum from liberal to conservative, the higher the confidence respondents have regarding Trump\u2019s future activities. Of the four issues queried \u2013 US-Israel relations, the fight against antisemitism, Iran, and the Palestinian question \u2013 American Jews expressed the greatest confidence in the issue of US-Israel relations. They expressed the least confidence in Trump\u2019s future handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<\/p>\n Among liberals, nearly all of whom voted for Kamala Harris, the lowest degree of confidence regarding Trump\u2019s upcoming term pertained to the fight against antisemitism, followed by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A quarter of the \u201ccentrist\u201d cohort reported no confidence that Trump will do the right thing regarding these two issues.<\/p>\n Most conservatives on JPPI\u2019s Voice of the Jewish People respondent panel say that they are very confident that Trump will \u201cdo the right thing\u201d (the survey questionnaire does not define what that is, making it possible or even likely that respondents interpret \u201cthe right thing\u201d differently) with respect to US-Israel relations. By contrast, a third of those self-identifying as \u201ccentrist,\u201d and less than 10% of self-identifying as liberals, feel this. Seventy percent of \u201cstrong-liberal,\u201d 40% of \u201cleaning-liberal,\u201d and a fifth of \u201ccentrist\u201d respondents (17%) express a complete lack of confidence that Trump will do the right thing regarding US-Israel relations. In a breakdown by religious stream, a third of Reform and Conservative Jews say they have no confidence that Trump will do the right thing regarding relations between the two countries; by contrast, half of the Orthodox and most ultra-Orthodox (61%) respondents have strong confidence in Trump on this issue.<\/p>\n Regarding the fight against antisemitism, a majority of liberal respondents say they have no confidence that Trump will \u201cdo the right thing,\u201d while most of their conservative counterparts express strong confidence that Trump will act appropriately on this issue. A quarter of the \u201ccentrist\u201d cohort feel this way as well; a third say they are somewhat confident on this score, while another quarter say they are not confident that Trump will handle the fight against antisemitism appropriately. On this issue, the trends are less clear when the findings are broken down by religious affiliation: half of Reform (49%) and Conservative (42%) Jews say that they are not at all confident that Trump will do the right thing regarding the fight against antisemitism, while nearly half of Orthodox (44%) and ultra-Orthodox (44%) respondents have strong confidence that Trump will act appropriately on this matter.<\/p>\n A majority of conservative respondents and a quarter of those who self-identify as centrist (27%) say they are very confident that Trump will do the right thing in contending with Iran. By contrast, most \u201cstrong liberals\u201d (73%) and half (44%) of \u201cleaning liberal\u201d respondents report that they are not at all confident that Trump will do the right thing in contending with Iran. In a breakdown by religious affiliation, most ultra-Orthodox respondents (67%), half of the Orthodox cohort (47%), a quarter of the Conservative group, and a fifth of Reform Jews say they have strong confidence that Trump will do the right thing in dealing with Iran.<\/p>\n Most \u201cstrong liberals\u201d (79%), half of the \u201cleaning liberal\u201d cohort, and a quarter of those who self-identify as centrist (23%) say they have no confidence that Trump will do the right thing regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. By contrast, a majority of \u201cstrong conservative\u201d respondents (60%), half of those \u201cleaning conservative\u201d (46%), and a fifth of self-identified \u201ccentrists\u201d (19%) report that they are very confident that Trump will act appropriately on this issue. In a breakdown by denominational affiliation, 44% of ultra-Orthodox and 37% of Orthodox Jews say that they are somewhat confident that Trump will do the right thing vis-\u00e0-vis the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<\/p>\n On the issue of Iran, we also looked at levels of confidence in Trump\u2019s secretary of state nominee, Senator Marco Rubio. A majority of conservatives and 41% of those in the \u201ccentrist\u201d cohort say they are very confident that Rubio will \u201cdo the right thing\u201d in dealing with Iran. By contrast, most \u201cstrong liberals\u201d (55%) and a quarter of those in the \u201cleaning liberal\u201d cohort report having no confidence at all that Rubio will act appropriately vis-\u00e0-vis Iran. Among liberal respondents, a relatively high percentage responded that they don\u2019t know \u2013 22% of \u201cstrong liberals\u201d and 29% of those in the \u201cleaning liberal\u201d cohort. Most Trump voters (76%) are very confident regarding Rubio\u2019s handling of the Iran issue. By contrast, Harris-voting respondents do not hold a monolithic view on this matter \u2013 an eighth are very confident that Rubio will do the right thing, a quarter are somewhat confident, 38% are not at all confident, while 22% of Harris voters do not know how to respond on this issue.<\/p>\n Confidence levels regarding Rubio\u2019s future performance on the Israeli-Palestinian issue are lower than those pertaining to his performance on Iran. Most conservatives and a third of centrists (32%) say they are very confident that Rubio will do the right thing on this issue. By contrast, a majority (65%) of \u201cstrong liberals\u201d and a third of those in the \u201cleaning liberal\u201d cohort are not at all confident in Rubio. When the findings are broken down by presidential voting pattern, half of Harris voters say they have no confidence in Rubio on this score, while 61% of Trump voters say they are very confident that Rubio will do the right thing with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<\/p>\n Support for Israel<\/strong><\/p>\n This month\u2019s survey showed a continuation of the disparity found in previous months between liberal respondents and those from the other camps regarding US support for Israel. The dominant view among conservatives and centrists is that the US does not support Israel enough. By contrast, 28% of \u201cstrong liberals\u201d feel that the US supports Israel too much. The percentage of \u201ccentrist\u201d respondents who think that the US does not support Israel enough remained identical to last month \u2013 the lowest share reported for this group in the past six months.<\/p>\n When the findings are broken down by denominational affiliation, half of Reform and most Conservative Jews feel that the US does not support Israel enough; the same is true for most respondents in the Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox cohorts. A third of Reform and Conservative respondents and a fifth of the Orthodox believe that the United States supports Israel to the right extent. An overwhelming majority of Trump voters (93%) and a third of Harris voters think the United States does not support Israel enough. Forty-four percent of Harris voters feel that the US support of Israel is at the right level, while 17% of Harris voters believe that the US supports Israel too much.<\/p>\n Israel at war<\/strong><\/p>\n After more than a year of Israel at war, there is no consensus among survey respondents on the question of Israeli victory. The further one moves along the ideological spectrum from liberal to conservative, the higher the percentage of respondents who believe Israel has won the war. Most conservatives, 42% of those in the \u201ccentrist\u201d cohort, a quarter of those \u201cleaning liberal\u201d, and 17% of \u201cstrong liberals\u201d feel this way. By contrast, a sizeable proportion of respondents feel that Israel has neither won nor lost the war. A small percentage across all respondent groups think Israel has lost the war, while 10% to 15% among all groups say it is too early to tell who won. In a breakdown by presidential voting pattern, most Trump voters believe Israel has won the war, while most Harris voters think Israel has neither won nor lost the war.<\/p>\n This month\u2019s survey detected a halt to the rise in share of self-identifying liberals and centrists who believe that Israel\u2019s military actions in Gaza are too aggressive. The percentage of conservatives who think Israel is overly aggressive has remained very low throughout 2024, while the share of liberals and centrists who feel this way had been growing until this month.<\/p>\n This month\u2019s data also indicates a slight drop in the share of liberals who feel that Israel\u2019s response to the October 7 attack has been \u201cmuch too aggressive\u201d or \u201csomewhat too aggressive.\u201d This change is small but significant, as it interrupts the trend of recent months toward rising shares of liberals who think this way. Despite the trend change, most liberals continue to believe that Israel\u2019s response to the October 7 onslaught has been too aggressive (much too aggressive or somewhat too aggressive).<\/p>\n This month\u2019s dramatic geopolitical development was the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Israel responded to this by taking over a number of positions in Syria, including on Mount Hermon, as well as with a massive bombardment of military infrastructure with the aim of keeping equipment and arms from falling into the hands of the rebel groups. Most members of the respondent panel believe that Israel\u2019s response to the developments in Syria has been \u201caggressive to the right extent.\u201d The further one moves along the ideological spectrum from liberal to conservative, the higher the share of those who think this way (except for the \u201cstrong conservatives,\u201d a quarter of whom feel that Israeli activity has not been aggressive enough). Both a majority of Trump voters (76%) and a majority of Harris voters (63%) feel that IDF activity in Syria is aggressive to the right extent.<\/p>\n Most survey respondents (73%) feel that Israel\u2019s image in the United States has been damaged by the war. A majority of liberals and centrists, half of those in the \u201cleaning conservative\u201d category, and 37% of \u201cstrong conservatives\u201d hold this view. There is a disparity between how Trump and Harris voters understand the war\u2019s effect on Israel\u2019s image. Most Harris voters (85%) believe Israel\u2019s image has been damaged over the past year of war, while 43% of Trump voters feel this way. A fifth of those who voted for the president-elect think that Israel\u2019s image in the US has not changed over the past year, while a quarter feel that Israel\u2019s image has improved during that time.<\/p>\n Most survey respondents agree with the statement \u201cIt\u2019s legitimate for Israel to refuse a ceasefire in Gaza until all of the hostages are released.\u201d The further one moves along the ideological spectrum from liberal to conservative, the higher the share of respondents who agree with this statement. While 52% of \u201cstrong liberals\u201d agree with the statement, the percentage of \u201cstrong conservatives\u201d who agree with it is 99%. Most Harris voters (65%) and the vast majority of Trump voters (98%) agree with the statement. A fifth of Harris voters do not agree with it, while an eighth of them said that they \u201cdon\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n Sense of Security<\/strong><\/p>\n Over a third (36%) of the respondent panel say the war in Israel has caused them to feel less secure, while 46% report that the war has somewhat affected their sense of security. The further one moves along the ideological spectrum from conservative to liberal, the higher the percentage of respondents who say they feel less secure as a result of the war. Less than a fifth of those in all ideological cohorts (except \u201cstrong conservatives\u201d) say that the war in Israel has not affected, or no longer affects, their sense of security.<\/p>\n However, when we look back at previous months, we can see that panel members\u2019 sense of security is higher than it was in the early months of the war. A certain improvement can be seen among some of the groups, compared to September\u2019s findings.<\/p>\n Closeness to Israel and to Judaism<\/strong><\/p>\n The Voice of the Jewish People survey has assessed the sense of closeness to Israel several times since October 7. When we compare responses across several months, we find that, relative to the start of the war, Jews who self-define as \u201cconservative\u201d or \u201ccentrist\u201d currently feel an almost identical degree of closeness to Israel, while the liberal subgroups show an erosion of the sense of closeness to Israel since the start of the war. In this month\u2019s survey, 40% of \u201cstrong liberals\u201d said the war was causing them to feel more distant from Israel.<\/p>\n The December Voice of the Jewish People survey also assessed attachment to Israel and Judaism with generational questions. Respondents were asked to indicate their attitudes toward these identity components relative to their parents and\/or their children (if the children are old enough for answers to be possible). Most respondents said they are connected to Israel at about the same degree as their parents, or more than their parents are. Among \u201cstrong liberals,\u201d 14% said they are less connected to Israel than their parents. The cohort in which half or more respondents said that they are more connected to Israel than their parents were the \u201cstrong conservatives\u201d (57%) and the self-identified centrists (51%). It should be noted that this finding is directly related to the fact that the Voice of the Jewish People panel comprises Jews whose level of connection to the Jewish community and to Israel is relatively high (as can be seen from the general data on the panel participants presented at the end of the report).<\/p>\n A third of liberals, and 40% of those who self-identify as centrist or conservative, responded that they are more connected to Israel than their children are. A third of respondents in each cohort (except for the \u201cstrong liberals\u201d) said that they are connected to Israel in approximately the same degree as their children. A very small percentage said they are less connected to Israel than their children are. Between 20% and 40% said they didn\u2019t know or that it\u2019s too early to tell. The higher the age, the greater the number of respondents who said that they are more connected to Israel than their children are. Most respondents over the age of 65 who responded to the question said that they are more connected to Israel than their children are.<\/p>\n Most respondents, across ideological groups, said that being Jewish matters to them to a similar degree as their parents. Less than 10% of respondents said that being Jewish matters to them less than to their parents.<\/p>\n A third of liberal respondents said that being Jewish matters more to them than to their children, a third said that being Jewish matters to them as much as it does to their children, and 38% said they didn\u2019t know. Among conservatives, a third responded that being Jewish matters more to them than to their children, and half said that being Jewish matters to them to the same degree as to their children. The further one moves along the religious spectrum from liberal to conservative, the lower the share of respondents who said that closeness to Judaism matters to them more than to their children, and the higher the share who said it matters to them to the same degree as to their children.<\/p>\n When we cross-referenced the data, we found that, of all this month\u2019s (582) survey respondents, 152 said they feel more connected both to Israel and to Judaism than their parents do, while 203 said that they are connected both to Israel and to Judaism to the same degree as their parents. When we cross-referenced findings from these questions with the children\u2019s views (as understood by parents), 149 said that they are connected both to Israel and to Judaism more than their children are, while 152 answered that they are connected both to Israel and to Judaism to the same degree as their children. 161 of respondent panel members answered that they didn\u2019t know or were unable answer these questions. In both cases \u2013 parents and children \u2013 it is worth noting the relatively large number of those who feel that the strength of their connection to Judaism is similar to that of their children and their parents, but that their connection to Israel is stronger than that of their children and their parents (marked in blue).<\/p>\n December Holidays<\/strong><\/p>\n With the approach of Hanukkah and Christmas, we posed a few questions pertaining to traditional observance. Most survey respondents said they plan to light Hanukkah candles this year on all eight nights. The further one moves along the religious spectrum from liberal to conservative, the higher the share of respondents who plan to light candles on all of the days of Hanukkah. When the findings are broken down by ideological orientation, we see that three in four respondents in all of the subgroups plan to light candles on every night of Hanukkah. According to Pew Research Center data, eight out of ten Jews have Hanukkah menorahs in their homes (nine out of ten \u201cJews by Religion\u201d). But the candle-lighting rate found in this survey is higher than the share of Jews who say they light candles every night (or most nights) in surveys that are representative of all American Jews.<\/p>\n\n
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