Israel has a unique opportunity in Syria. The December 2024 collapse of Bashar al-Assad\u2019s regime sharply changed the regional orientation. Syria was suddenly no longer the lifeline of the Shiite axis on the northern front, through which Iranian weapons and money passed to Hezbollah. Instead, Damascus belongs to Ahmed al-Sharaa, a Sunni leader and former commander of al Qaeda\u2019s Syrian affiliate, who had fought Hezbollah for years.<\/p>\n
So far, Israel has treated Mr. al-Sharaa with skepticism. It responded to the Assad regime\u2019s fall militarily, destroying Syrian capabilities and seizing a forward line in the Syrian Golan. Mr. al-Sharaa\u2019s past raises legitimate questions about whether his political transformation from jihadist to suit-wearing rebuilder of Syria is genuine or tactical. Even if he is truly committed to restoring Syria and stabilizing relations with Israel, the country will remain fragile. Southern Syria is vulnerable to terrorist activity; such groups have operated near the Israeli border before. The regime\u2019s relationship with Turkey is also troubling, while the unresolved dispute over the Golan Heights limits prospects for comprehensive peace.<\/p>\n
Yet Israel appears to be missing a strategic window. Mr. al-Sharaa is no friend of Israel, but he is a clear enemy of Hezbollah. And while the previous Syrian government relied on Iran and Russia, Mr. al-Sharaa\u2019s depends on Western and Gulf support, foreign investment and international acceptance. Damascus needs quiet on the Israeli front.<\/p>\n
This overlap of interests seems to already be yielding results. According to Axios, the U.S. in July brokered an understanding involving Syria, Israel and the International Atomic Energy Agency to secure and remove nuclear material from a clandestine site linked to the Assad regime\u2019s nuclear program. The episode demonstrated that where interests converge, Israel and the new Syrian government can address concrete security threats through U.S.-mediated, verifiable arrangements rather than confrontation.<\/p>\n
Israel should exploit this overlap of interests in two areas: weakening the Shiite axis and preventing Sunni terrorist groups from establishing themselves in Syria. For the first time in years, there\u2019s a government in Damascus that can sharply reduce the flow of weapons and money to Hezbollah. Israel should promote a U.S.-led security mechanism along the Syria-Lebanon border to impede Hezbollah\u2019s rearmament\u2014an essential part of any effort to weaken the group. Western forces including Israel could train and support designated Syrian and Lebanese units to target smuggling networks with the help of advanced monitoring systems. The U.S. would ensure that Syria and Lebanon make securing the border and disrupting smuggling a priority.<\/p>\n
The two countries should also prevent Syria from serving global jihadist groups or Hamas. Israel can support reconstruction assistance conditioned on excluding Iranian forces, preventing terrorist infrastructure and ensuring that Syrian territory isn\u2019t again used to threaten Israel.<\/p>\n
Israel should stay cautious. Any Israeli redeployment from positions it seized after Mr. Assad\u2019s fall should be gradual and tied to verifiable security conditions. Israel can also coordinate humanitarian aid through monitored international channels for border communities, helping stabilize one of Syria\u2019s poorest areas and reduce local hostility to Israel.<\/p>\n
A comprehensive peace treaty isn\u2019t currently realistic. But Israel\u2019s strategy need not run only through the barrel of a gun. In Mr. al-Sharaa\u2019s Syria, an opportunity is emerging for limited cooperation against the Shiite axis, which could lay the groundwork for broader arrangements, foremost a security agreement in southern Syria. Israel should pursue the opportunity cautiously, following Reagan\u2019s approach to Gorbachev: Trust but verify.<\/p>\n