It would be more fun to write a feel-good column on the promise of a much better year. But reality points the other way. A convergence of trends and events \u2013 some global, some local \u2013 threatens to turn 5787 into a \u201cperfect storm\u201d: several forces coming together, each likely to confront us with challenges even greater than those we have already endured.<\/p>\n
At home: political instability, intensifying internal conflict, accelerating net emigration, and continuing security threats. Abroad: artificial intelligence; a climate spinning out of control; instability in the international system and intensifying great-power competition; and, as a result of all these, the continued rise of antisemitism, which, true to form, blames Jews for every ill.<\/p>\n
I hope I turn out to be wrong. But I may not.<\/p>\n
The problems facing Israel in the new year<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s start in Israel. Elections will be held shortly after the holidays. Months of polling, including surveys conducted in recent days, point to a political deadlock. Like two wrestlers in the ring, the political \u201cblocs\u201d have each other by the throat, with neither able to prevail. If that holds, we can expect a replay of the election years of 2020\u20132023 and prolonged instability. This time, however, the social reality is more extreme \u2013 most Israelis identify the social rift as the greatest risk facing Israel \u2013despite the immense challenges of the security environment. As conditions deteriorate, more Israelis are leaving the country, including many who are part of the backbone of the economy.<\/p>\n
The security and foreign-policy fronts are also unstable \u2013 and in some respects, worsening. Israel has failed to achieve a decisive victory on any front. The IDF is stretched to the limit in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank, while another \u201cround\u201d with Iran looms as a very real possibility. The security burden on military personnel and the Israeli economy is enormous \u2013 almost unprecedented.<\/p>\n
The international outlook is no brighter. On the eve of the new year, Britain \u2013 once a close Israeli ally \u2013 imposed unprecedented sanctions on Israel. Eleven other European countries have followed suit, including major EU members. Israel\u2019s standing in the United States is deteriorating as well. On both sides of the political divide, rhetoric toward Israel and Jews is becoming more extreme. Israel has already become a major issue in the midterm elections \u2013 not to its advantage \u2013 and as the 2028 presidential race heats up, the situation is likely to worsen. Public support for Israel is at a historic low. Then there is antisemitism. In Europe, this is old news \u2013 and the situation is bad. But over the past year, antisemitism in the United States, together with denial of Israel\u2019s right to exist, has also surged and gained legitimacy, with such views now openly voiced by influencers and politicians. Antisemitism and rejection of Israel have become intertwined, threatening Jewish life in the Diaspora and becoming a national-security challenge for Israel itself.<\/p>\n
Added to these are global challenges that will significantly affect Israel. The first is artificial intelligence. Many experts now expect AI to advance faster than previously thought \u2013 and to reshape our lives sooner than expected. There will be benefits, but the labor market and global economy also face the real prospect of a severe crisis \u2013 one that could last until economies and governments adapt to this new environment. Israel, whose economy is driven by its technology sector, is especially exposed.<\/p>\n
Over all of this hangs the climate crisis. On its own, it might not drastically alter the international system. Combined with other pressures, however, it could become a major factor. Together, these trends intensify instability in the international system and sharpen great-power competition \u2013 both with consequences for Israel.<\/p>\n
Some of these trends are beyond our control, and Israel has little influence over them. That does not exempt Israel from confronting them and preparing for their effects. Others \u2013 those directly involving Israel \u2013 are much more within our power to shape. Some result from government policy; others from external forces. But in both cases, we can do more to address them. The challenges awaiting us in 5787 could coalesce into a perfect storm. But this outcome is not inevitable; the choices we make can soften the blow. Despite it all \u2013 happy new year!<\/p>\n