Biden has repeatedly stated that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb is a central mission of his administration. But there is a gap between declarations and actions.
It is widely believed that Iran is weeks to months away from being able to produce a nuclear warhead. The only option to stop it from developing nuclear weapons is by kinetic attack. Israel’s significant achievements against Hezbollah in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East create a historic opportunity to strike Iran.
The November election is a key reason to delay such action. But it could also be a reason to proceed. This may be President Biden’s last chance to leave a significant mark on foreign policy. Success in this arena would also undermine the Republican candidate’s argument that the current administration is weak, portraying Mr. Biden as the leader who can restore order to the world.
The conflict between Israel and Iran’s terrorist proxies encircling it obscures the greater threat to Israel, the Middle East and the world: an Iranian nuclear bomb. According to recent estimates from Israel and the West, Iran is only weeks to months away from being capable of producing a small number of nuclear warheads.
Over recent years, under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action initiated by the Obama administration, better known as the Iran nuclear deal, and certainly after its collapse, Iran has continued advancing its military nuclear project. The implications of a nuclear-armed Iran are devastating. Beyond the fact that a fundamentalist regime would possess the ultimate weapon, this development would undoubtedly trigger a regional arms race, leaving the Middle East — one of the most unstable regions in the world — on the brink of becoming nuclearized.
Mr. Biden has repeatedly stated that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb is a central mission of his administration. But there is a gap between declarations and actions. Over the past four years, Iran has continued to advance its nuclear program while spreading terror across the Middle East through its proxy forces in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and several African countries. In the past two years, Iran has also supported Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Despite Iran’s determined violence, the White House has done little to deter it. Its unofficial policy has been to contain and de-escalate Iranian aggression. On several occasions, the administration has even made gestures toward Iran, hoping it would return to serious negotiations regarding its nuclear program. Mr. Biden’s passivity, at least in managing global risks, has failed.
Israel’s success in its war against Hezbollah over the past two weeks, along with its dismantling of Hamas, which has lost its real military capacity, is reshaping the reality in the Middle East. Hezbollah, Iran’s primary proxy force, has been a massive investment for Tehran over the decades. Its main purpose was to deter Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear program, and to eventually destroy Israel.
While Hezbollah has not yet lost all its strength, after the destruction of much of its leadership and key assets in Lebanon, its ability to pose a serious threat to Israel has been significantly diminished. So far, Iran’s other proxy forces have also failed to act effectively against Israel. Moreover, the events of April 14 demonstrated that it is possible to counter the missile and drone threats from Iran, even if such success cannot be guaranteed to repeat itself.
All of this creates a historic opportunity for Israel and the U.S. to strike a significant blow against Iran’s nuclear program. Israel is justified in acting against Iran. Iran has attacked Israel and has continued to do so over the past year. Its proxies consistently target U.S. military bases in the region under Iran’s direction. Furthermore, Iran’s race toward nuclear capability presents a regional and global threat that only Israel and the United States can disrupt.
Beyond the strategic justification for striking Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. presidential election looms large. The prevailing assumption is that the Democratic Party’s interest lies in maintaining calm until after the elections. Mr. Biden, however, has an opportunity to take decisive action that could boost Kamala Harris’ election chances and leave a historic foreign policy legacy. Beyond all these considerations, there are pivotal moments in history where the world’s future must outweigh political calculations.