If Israel or the U.S. fail to act, Iran will rebuild its proxy armies, it will continue to fortify its installations and could very easily take the final steps and build a nuclear bomb
For the last 20 years, two primary fears have held Israel back from launching a preemptive military strike to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.
The first, was a concern that a military strike would not succeed. Senior defense officials in Israel and the West warned that the Israeli Air Force could not reach Iran, could not overcome the advanced Russian air defense systems that surrounded its strategic facilities, and could not penetrate some of the nuclear installations, which are buried deep underground beneath layers of thick concrete and steel.
The second fear was the practical price Israel would pay if it attacked. Iran is believed to have about 2,500 long-range ballistic missiles capable of striking Israel; Hezbollah, until recently, had an arsenal of 150,000 missiles; Hamas had around 40,000 and the Houthis in Yemen have hundreds. Lastly, there was the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria which, also until recently, was in possession of hundreds of Scud missiles and several tons of chemical weapons.
These fears are no longer relevant. In October, for example, more than 100 Israeli Air Force aircraft, including the advanced F-35I, flew more than 2,000 kilometers and struck more than 20 targets throughout Iran. The targets included some components of Iran’s missile and drone production infrastructure as well as Iran’s three remaining S-300 surface-to-air missile systems (a fourth had been destroyed in an earlier Israeli attack in April).
In the strike, Israel not only knocked out Iran’s ability to defend itself, but it also destroyed the regime’s ability to repel a future attack. This means that Israel would have free reign in Iranian airspace.
While the question of whether Israeli Air Force can penetrate some of the fortified Iranian installations remains, insight into this ability was provided in September when Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah. In the operation, called “New Order,” dozens of Israeli aircraft dropped more than 80 tons of munitions on a deep and heavily fortified bunker in Beirut, leading it to capsize. Being able to carry out this type of attack—dropping one bomb after the other in waves of precise and repeated airstrikes—is an important skill that has been honed by Israel to penetrate bunkers and will work just as well in Iran.
Fear of potential retaliation has greatly diminished as of last week. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime were supported by Iran, partially, to serve as a deterrent against Israel and to make Jerusalem understand that if it ever attacked Iran, it would come under unprecedented missile barrages. Up until a few months ago, Israeli military officers were predicting that Hezbollah could fire up to 5,000 missiles a day anywhere inside Israel.
This is no longer the case.
In Syria, after Assad’s removal, Israel has launched more than 300 bombing runs to eliminate any remnants of Syria’s air force, navy, missile arsenal, and chemical weapons stockpile.
Hamas has also been destroyed as a military force thanks to the war Israel has waged against the terrorist group in response to the Oct. 7 invasion and murder of 1,200 people.
And while the Houthis have a small arsenal of Iranian weapons, they are mostly intended for disrupting shipping routes in the Red Sea, not for attacking Israel.
While Iran still has an impressive arsenal of its own ballistic missiles, it is not a strategic threat. In Iran’s April and October missile attacks against Israel, the Israel Defense Forces—together with the U.S. Central Command—did a remarkable job at intercepting almost all the Iranian projectiles.
All this means Iran is today weak, isolated, and vulnerable. Israel, whether on its own or in coordination with the United States, has a unique and historic opportunity to, once and for all, remove the primary threat that it has warned about for more than 20 years—Iran’s nuclear program.
This window of opportunity is not unlimited. If Israel or the U.S. fail to act, Iran will rebuild its proxy armies, it will continue to fortify its installations and could very easily take the final steps and build a nuclear bomb. If there was ever a time to act, that time is now.