Macron’s push for Palestinian recognition risks strengthening antisemitism in France while weakening the country’s international standing and internal stability.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s open letter to Prime Minister Netanyahu, published in the daily Le Monde, was presented as a solemn appeal for peace and a firm response to antisemitism. But two illusions underlie its lofty rhetoric: that recognition of Palestine will bring peace and that it will protect French Jews. Both are false.
Canada, Germany, Italy, and Belgium, have stepped back from Macron’s initiative in recent days, arguing that the Palestinian Authority has yet to meet the conditions of statehood. If France goes it alone at the UN next month, this may well devolve into a major diplomatic flop. Macron insists on a demilitarized Palestinian state and the dismantling of Hamas. But he has made the case for how recognition will advance those goals.
Logic and precedent suggest otherwise. Once recognition is granted, Hamas will have little incentive to make concessions or release hostages. Macron’s démarche has already hardened Hamas’s stance in negotiations. Rewarding terrorism with a diplomatic prize does not build peace; it breeds defiance and intransigence.
Macron’s letter also claims his government is assiduously addressing rising antisemitism, but his statehood initiative will, in reality, aggravate it. One quarter of French citizens under 35 now celebrate Ramadan, a demographic shift that weighs heavily on electoral politics. By championing the Palestinian cause, Macron appeals to that constituency, even if the cost is borne by the country’s Jews.
Recognition of Palestine will fuel the fires of antisemitism in France. On the French street, such a move translates as support for the Islamist groups that justify antisemitic violence. It signals that their cause has been validated by the president.
Some factual context: Reported antisemitic incidents in France numbered 1,700 in 2024, nearly 300% higher than two years earlier. French Jews endure physical aggression almost daily – intimidation at schools, assaults near synagogues, harassment in public spaces. Macron’s recognition will only embolden his nation’s antisemites.
France’s room for maneuver is further constrained by dependence on Qatar. Doha holds a significant share of French debt and has invested €40–50 billion into the French economy, from real estate to key industries to sports. Paris also signed a 28-year gas supply deal with Qatar, ensuring long-term reliance on a state that bankrolls Islamist networks in Europe. Between the pull of the Arab street and Doha’s financial leverage, Macron’s operational independence is shrinking.
And this dependence reflects broader weakness.
Public debt has climbed to €3.345 trillion, or 111% of GDP. Interest payments will reach €62 billion in 2025, an amount equal to the entire education budget. Foreign investment fell 12% in 2024. Youth unemployment afflicts one in four. And 70% of French citizens say they no longer trust their institutions.
Abroad, France has been forced to withdraw from Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, where Russia filled the vacuum. Repeated concessions to Algeria did not bring partnership. Two French hostages remain in Iran. In Syria, Paris is marginalized. At the United Nations, it is often isolated. This diminished France presumes to dictate conditions for peace in the Middle East.
The recent episode with US Ambassador to France Charles Kushner, highlights the fragility of Macron’s stance. After Kushner’s letter decrying antisemitism in France, Macron summoned him to Paris. However, Kushner refused and dispatched an underling instead. Under the Vienna Convention of 1961, this should have led to loss of accreditation and a polite escort to Terminal 101 at Charles de Gaulle Airport. Macron, however, did no such thing, knowing that US President Donald Trump would respond by expelling the French ambassador from Washington.
Confronting Netanyahu and scolding French Jews is easy. The real question is whether Macron will ever show the same resolve toward the United States.
