The US–Israel alliance is approaching an inflection point: Preserving its strength will require more than rhetoric – it demands bipartisan resolve, strategic clarity, and a recognition that America’s credibility in the Middle East still matters.
As tensions between President Trump and the Iranian regime re-emerge at the center of global attention, the Middle East braces itself for what may be a defining chapter in regional geopolitics. One fact is inescapable: the stakes have never been higher.
Over the last two decades, Iran has expanded its influence in the Middle East with minimal resistance. While the West concentrated on containing Saddam Hussein and later combating ISIS, Tehran quietly filled the vacuum, embedding itself in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was intended to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Instead, it gave the regime both economic relief and diplomatic legitimacy – without meaningfully restraining its regional aggression.
Then came October 7, 2023 – a date that reshaped the security calculus. The brutal surprise attack on Israel by Hamas launched the Jewish state into its longest and most complex war in decades. What began as a single-front conflict rapidly evolved into a multi-front battle against a coordinated ring of Iranian-backed proxies. For Israel, this was not just a war – it was a wake-up call.
The nuclear question, long a regional obsession, now looms larger than ever. Iran’s status as a threshold nuclear state has given it a level of deterrence and influence far beyond its conventional military capabilities. Sunni Arab nations, long wary of Iran’s hegemonic designs, are increasingly aligned with Israel on this front – forming, de facto, a strategic bloc centered on survival and deterrence.
During my time working for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, I saw firsthand the continued implementation of the Begin Doctrine, a decades-old Israeli policy that holds a single uncompromising principle: never allow a hostile regime in the region to obtain nuclear weapons. For Israel, a nuclear Iran isn’t just a threat – it’s an unacceptable reality that must be prevented at all costs.
This context makes President Trump’s foreign policy legacy all the more significant. His administration’s orchestration of the Abraham Accords not only ended Israel’s diplomatic isolation in the Arab world, but also signaled a shift toward strategic cooperation among moderate Sunni states. The unspoken aim? Countering Iran’s expanding influence.
Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA was controversial, but it addressed a fundamental flaw in the deal: it allowed Iran a glide path to nuclear capability within a decade. Still, his administration faced an internal tension – between the desire to reduce American military entanglements abroad and the need to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, all while refocusing geopolitical strategy on China.
For Israel, however, American support is not a luxury – it’s existential. The 10-year Memorandum of Understanding, signed last under President Obama, continues to provide critical Foreign Military Funding and supplemental support for missile defense systems like Iron Dome and has repeatedly proven essential during times of crisis. Just as crucial is US diplomatic backing in hostile international forums, especially at the United Nations.
Yet, in recent years, Israel has increasingly become a wedge issue in US domestic politics – splitting not only voters but lawmakers along partisan lines. Once a bastion of bipartisan consensus, support for Israel is now filtered through the lens of broader ideological divides, foreign policy fatigue, and shifting generational values. This politicization threatens to erode one of the most strategically significant alliances in the free world. The danger is not just rhetorical; it risks undermining sustained military and diplomatic cooperation at a time when Israel faces existential threats on multiple fronts.
Israel now understands that preventing another October 7th means dismantling Iran’s proxy infrastructure. Should it become necessary to strike Iran’s deeply fortified nuclear facilities (as the recent leak to the NYT indicated as a viable option), such an operation would require at minimum US greenlighting – and potentially, operational support and advanced munitions.
The road ahead is riddled with critical questions. What does a US – Iran agreement look like? Would the US agree to a deal which includes flaws similar to the JCPOA Trump abandoned calling it a terrible deal (sunset clause, lack of an answer to Iran’s regional aggression)? Will Iran’s religious clerics merely use negotiations as a time buying tactic, not truly intending to reach an agreement? And perhaps most crucially, will Israel be consulted in real time, rather than after decisions are made (much like was the case in the JCPOA)?
These questions remain unresolved. But one truth stands firm: the US – Israel alliance is approaching an inflection point. Preserving its strength will require more than rhetoric – it demands bipartisan resolve, strategic clarity, and a recognition that America’s credibility in the Middle East still matters. President Trump must recognize that Iran is not a regional irritant – it is the epicenter of global instability, connecting terror, nuclear ambition, and geopolitical chaos. If his foreign policy legacy is to be more than a transactional series of withdrawals and recalibrations, it must confront the Iranian threat not as a sideshow to great-power competition with China, but as a central test of American resolve and leadership. The Middle East will not wait for America to decide whether it still leads.