Foreword

The Jewish People Policy Institute’s Annual Assessment is both a rear-view mirror and a forward-looking compass. It takes stock of the year that was, measures the trajectory of the Jewish people in Israel and the Diaspora, and asks whether the trends shaping our future will strengthen or weaken us. Traditionally presented to the Government of Israel, it offers policymakers a clear-eyed, policy-driven analysis across six pillars of Jewish well-being: geopolitics, cohesion, resilience, identity, demography, and the critical Israel-U.S. relationship.

Nearly two years after the October 7 massacre shattered Israel’s sense of security, the country is still living in its long shadow. What began as a murderous Hamas assault has evolved into the most complex multi-front war in Israel’s history.

In 2024-2025, the IDF fought in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and even deep inside Iran, achieving dramatic battlefield victories: dismantling Hezbollah’s offensive arsenal, driving its forces from southern Lebanon, triggering the Syrian opposition into action that led to the swift downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus, and – in an unprecedented joint operation with the United States – striking at the heart of Iran’s nuclear program. Collectively, these operations have shifted the regional balance of power in Israel’s favor and dramatically weakened Iran and its proxy network.

And yet, the central war aims remain unmet. Hamas’s grip on parts of Gaza endures. At the time of this writing, dozens of hostages are still in captivity, and the territory lies in ruins without a credible plan for reconstruction or governance by someone other than Hamas. The government’s refusal to present a viable “day after” strategy – according to some, being done in part to preserve the coalition – has deepened international frustration and eroded public trust at home.

International frustration expresses itself in increasing recognition of Palestinian statehood, which is symbolic but deepens the sense among those like Mahmoud Abbas that Palestinians will be granted a state rather than having to earn it.

And, even in the United States, the searing images coming out of Gaza risk producing a tipping point in terms of public support for Israel with a majority no longer favoring it – and this includes Republicans and evangelicals between the ages of 18 and 26.

Domestically in Israel, the political arena has been consumed by battles over the war’s direction, the fate of the hostages, and the prime minister’s motives. Critics accuse him of putting political survival ahead of strategic clarity; supporters hail him for seizing a historic chance to reshape the region’s security architecture. Militarily, Israel is stronger than it has been in decades; diplomatically, it finds itself closer than ever to a supportive White House under Donald Trump, yet increasingly isolated in Europe and under mounting legal and political attack abroad.

Israel now stands at a crossroads. The blows dealt to Hezbollah, the fall of Assad, and the damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear ambitions have created an opening to forge a new regional order – one that could align key Sunni states with Jerusalem against a weakened Shiite axis. But without a political horizon for Gaza, there is a risk that short-term military success will harden into long-term strategic isolation.

Domestically, the country faces one of the deepest social and political crises in its history – and perhaps an equally rare chance to address it. Public trust in the government is low. Polarization is hardening. Long-standing disputes over Israel’s identity, its system of governance, and the distribution of civic burdens remain unresolved. The trauma of October 7 briefly united Israelis against a common enemy, but the war’s length and intensity have reopened old wounds: disputes over judicial reform, the rules of the political game, and the sweeping exemptions from military service granted to the fast-growing Haredi population.

Israel can choose to confront these challenges now – through pragmatic constitutional reform, renewed political legitimacy, and a fairer distribution of responsibilities – or risk slipping into a cycle of crises that no military victory can break.

Around the world, the threat to Jews is of growing concern as portrayals of Jews as enemies of humanity are gaining traction, no longer fringe rhetoric. In Europe, individuals with documented antisemitic records are ascending to positions of political authority, while Jewish visibility retreats under sustained pressure. In the United States, Jewish representation in elite academic institutions is steadily diminishing, and identification with Israel among young Americans – particularly within the Democratic Party – is declining precipitously.

And yet there are reasons for hope. The global Jewish population is growing, driven by gains both in Israel and in many Diaspora communities. And while, for the first time in years, Israel’s migration balance has turned negative, with more citizens leaving than arriving – the emerging Israeli diaspora has the potential to serve as a living bridge to Jewish communities worldwide, strengthening bonds and revitalizing aging populations abroad.

Regionally, the Abraham Accords have endured the upheaval of war. When the Gaza conflict ends, there may be a unique opportunity to expand and deepen these alliances with countries like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and others.

Perhaps most encouraging is the renewed sense of solidarity within the Jewish world. The shock of October 7 drew even disengaged communities back into active connection with Israel. Across continents, Jews rallied – politically, financially, and communally – in a demonstration of unity rarely seen in recent decades. In Israel and abroad, the crisis has prompted a rethinking of what Jewish peoplehood means in the 21st century. Younger Diaspora Jews are re-engaging, and leaders have a rare chance to turn this wartime togetherness into something lasting.

If seized now, through joint educational initiatives, expanded exchanges, and honest, sometimes difficult dialogue, this moment could transform shared grief and danger into a more resilient, globally connected Jewish future. That is the challenge – and the opportunity – at the heart of this year’s assessment.

Stuart E. Eizenstat and Dennis Ross, Co-Chairs

Yedidia Stern, President