Foreword

As we mark three years since the outbreak of the Ukraine war – which represents the first significant forced change in European borders since World War II – it is clear that its implications reach far beyond the existing battlefield.

The geopolitical arena: The war in Ukraine is reshaping the power dynamics between the global superpowers (Russia, China, and the United States), and also has implications for the status of regional powers (such as Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia). The conflict strengthens and weakens various alliances and cooperative efforts between countries, whets the imperial “appetite” that could erupt in other places, and impacts energy and other markets.

The ideological and structural arena: The war is emblematic of a broad struggle between liberal and authoritarian political frameworks. Ethnonationalism is resurging in Europe, challenging the self-image of a continent that has sought to be “liberated” from the particularism and collective identities of past generations. The liberal order and the fundamental values of the Enlightenment are under attack. European society – which had longed for a horizon of peace supported by diplomacy and conflict resolution institutions – is waking up to a threatening and forceful strategic reality that necessitates amped up investment in military power.

How do the significant changes on both levels – geopolitical and ideological – affect the interests of Jews and the State of Israel? This is the subject Dr. Dov Maimon, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI), explores in this study.

Overall, it appears that the traditional enemies of Israel and Jewish interests are gaining steam as a result of the changes. Alliances centered around China and Russia and the strengthening of Qatar and Turkey do not bode well. Moreover, Jewish communities, which have thrived under liberal democracy, are experiencing the consequences of the nationalism and xenophobia developing on the extreme right, and the attack on Zionism that characterizes the far left.

At the same time, the study points to the tightening military and security cooperation between Israel and European countries that recognize Israel’s unique capabilities in military and technological contexts. These emerging pragmatic partnerships hold strategic promise. The war has also flexed the muscle of Jewish solidarity – with Diaspora Jewry and the State of Israel (cautiously due to the implications for its relations with Russia) have mobilized for impressive humanitarian action on behalf of Ukrainian and Russian Jewry since the onset of the war.

Dr. Maimon analyzes three possible future scenarios – a Russian victory, a Ukrainian victory, and a prolonged conflict – and considers their implications for Jewish communities and European-Israeli relations. He also lays out a series of policy recommendations for Jewish leadership and Israeli policymakers.

A great deal of gratitude goes to Dr. Maimon for undertaking this pioneering and fascinating study on a contemporary and evolving issue, from a multidisciplinary perspective that integrates the cultural, economic, and geopolitical spheres.

Prof. Yedidia Stern, President,
The Jewish People Policy Institute