Future Scenarios and Strategic Implications

Current military and political developments suggest three possible trajectories, each with its own implications for Jewish communities and Israel-Europe relations:

Scenario: Russian Victory

A Russian victory would likely accelerate the erosion of the post-war international order. The fall of Avdiivka in February 2024, achieved by Russia in four months with fewer casualties than previous operations, demonstrated improved Russian capabilities. This scenario would strengthen the alliance between Russia, Iran, and Qatar, potentially enabling increased funding for anti-Israel activities and Islamic movements across Europe. The elevated position of these powers would significantly impact European policy autonomy, particularly given Qatar’s critical role in Europe’s energy supply. Military cooperation between Iran and Russia would likely expand beyond the current $2.5 billion partnership, potentially providing Iran with advanced capabilities that could threaten both Israeli and European Jewish interests.

Scenario: Ukrainian Victory

While having a potentially stabilizing effect on the broader European order, a Ukrainian victory could, paradoxically, increase challenges for Jewish communities. Mounting nationalistic sentiment across Europe, though currently in support of Ukrainian sovereignty, could evolve to pressure minority communities. However, this scenario would also strengthen Israel’s position as a key European security partner, given its demonstrated expertise in areas crucial to Europe’s defensive capabilities.

Scenario: Prolonged Conflict

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, the prolonged conflict scenario appears most likely based on current evidence. The trajectory will ultimately hinge on the endurance of both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine’s ability to sustain the fight relies heavily on continued Western support, public morale, and economic stability. While resilience has been evident, the prolonged strain of war risks depleting resources and testing societal resolve. Russia, on the other hand, has bolstered its war efforts with a 70 percent increase in defense spending (now 7.5% of GDP) and the mobilization of 400,000 additional defense industry workers. However, the limits of domestic patience remain uncertain. Economic sanctions, rising war costs, and potential public dissatisfaction could erode support over time, despite the Kremlin’s preparations for a protracted conflict. This scenario would enable Qatar, Iran, and Russia to leverage high energy prices and military cooperation to secure financial and strategic gains.