Europe: Where Strategic and Normative Shifts Converge

The transformation of Europe’s military and strategic posture represents one of the most significant consequences of the Ukraine war, marking an unprecedented departure from decades of post-Cold War complacency. This fundamental shift encompasses not just military spending and capabilities, but extends to energy security, infrastructure development, and strategic culture. This led to increased economic relations with Israel in multiple fields, as detailed in Appendix 1, including defense technology, cybersecurity, energy cooperation, and financial investments. Beyond the economy and military sphere, this rapprochement also translated into expanded non-economic relations with Israel (academic, cultural, diplomatic, tourism, etc.) as detailed in Appendix 2. However, the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and its aftermath has dramatically altered this strategic landscape, adding new complexities to European security calculations and alliance dynamics. In Appendices 1 and 2, we have indicated both the level of negative impact of the Gaza war on various cooperation fields and identified those areas of partnership that have proven resilient throughout the crisis.

Despite the tensions arising from the Gaza conflict, key strategic areas of cooperation have maintained their momentum, driven by mutual interests and security imperatives: energy cooperation remains a strategic priority, particularly given Europe’s ongoing efforts to diversify its sources; defense technology collaboration maintains its critical status, reflecting shared security challenges; and while research and development faces more selective continuation with additional validation requirements, critical fields such as medical studies, climate research, cybersecurity, and counter-terrorism continue to benefit from Israeli expertise and mutual strategic interests.

1. Germany’s Strategic Revolution

Germany’s Zeitenwende (turning point) represents the most dramatic shift in post-war European politics. Data from the Federal Ministry of Defense shows defense spending reaching an unprecedented €100 billion in special allocations,²⁵ while German-Russian trade declined by 77 percent between 2021 and 2023.²⁶ This transformation extends beyond military spending to represent a fundamental reorientation of German strategic calculus.²⁷

The decision to phase out nuclear power plants exemplified how the post-war assumption of perpetual peace led to strategically vulnerable choices. While driven by environmental concerns, this policy was enabled by an overconfident belief in permanent peaceful relations with Russia as a reliable gas supplier. The resulting near-total dependence on Russian gas revealed the dangers of prioritizing ecological concerns without maintaining sufficient energy security and strategic autonomy. German energy policy has since undergone radical restructuring. German Economic Ministry figures reveal a complete transformation of energy imports, with Russian gas dropping from 55 percent to near zero by late 2023.²⁸ The shift has carried substantial economic costs, with industrial energy prices rising 145 percent before new supplies and infrastructure could moderate costs. However, this economic challenge has strengthened rather than weakened German resolve, marking a decisive break with decades of Ostpolitik.

2. French Strategic Autonomy

France’s response to the Ukraine war reflects its unique position in European security architecture. Defense Ministry data shows military aid to Ukraine reaching €3.2 billion by 2024,²⁹ while maintaining diplomatic initiatives under President Macron. French nuclear deterrence forces have increased readiness levels for the first time since the Cold War, demonstrating European strategic autonomy concerns.

3. Nordic Security Revolution

Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession has fundamentally altered Northern European security architecture. Finnish Defense Forces have brought NATO 280,000 trained reserves and Europe’s largest artillery force outside of Ukraine and Russia.³⁰ Swedish defense spending has increased to 2.1 percent of GDP, focusing on submarine warfare and air defense capabilities.³¹ This Nordic expansion has significantly strengthened NATO’s northern flank while transforming Baltic Sea security dynamics.

Norwegian gas exports to Europe have reached record levels, with data showing a 50 percent increase in pipeline transmission to the continent.³² Denmark has accelerated its green energy transition while strengthening Baltic security cooperation, illustrating the integration of energy and security policies in European strategic thinking.

The Port of Rotterdam has emerged as a crucial logistics hub, with data showing a 156 percent increase in LNG imports to replace Russian gas.³³ This transformation of European energy infrastructure demonstrates both the continent’s adaptive capacity and the emergence of new strategic nodes in European security.

Denmark has accelerated its green energy transition while strengthening Baltic security cooperation, illustrating the integration of energy and security policies in European strategic thinking.

The Port of Rotterdam has emerged as a crucial logistics hub, with data showing a 156 percent increase in LNG imports to replace Russian gas.³³ This transformation of European energy infrastructure demonstrates both the continent’s adaptive capacity and the emergence of new strategic nodes in European security.

4. Eastern European Emergence

Poland has transformed from a frontier state to a strategic hub of NATO’s eastern flank. Defense spending has reached 4 percent of GDP, the highest percentage among NATO members.³⁴ Polish infrastructure has become crucial for Western aid to Ukraine, with the Port of Gdańsk handling over 65 percent of heavy military equipment transfers.³⁵

The Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – have emerged as moral and strategic leaders in supporting Ukraine. Estonian cyber defense capabilities have proved particularly valuable, with government data showing successful deflection of over 750 major cyber-attacks.³⁶ Latvia and Lithuania have taken leading roles in sanctions implementation despite the significant economic costs.

5. Central European Dynamics

The Czech Republic and Slovakia have provided Soviet-era equipment to Ukraine, with replacement value exceeding €2.3 billion.³⁷ However, Hungary’s more ambivalent position has created tensions within both the EU and NATO, indicating the persistence of divergent national interests even within the context of broader European unity.

6. Mediterranean Response

Italy’s position has evolved from initial hesitancy to strong support under successive governments. Spanish and Portuguese support, though less prominent due to geographic distance, has included significant humanitarian assistance and military training programs. Greece and Cyprus have navigated complex positions shaped by historical ties to Russia, Orthodox Christianity, and maritime trading interests.