Geopolitical Transformation

1. A Concerning Precedent

The Peace of Westphalia (1648) established four core principles that have shaped international relations for nearly four centuries: state sovereignty; territorial integrity; non-intervention in the domestic affairs of other nation-states; and legal equality among nation-states. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represents the most significant violation of this Westphalian order and marks the first direct attempt since World War II to efface another state’s sovereignty through aggressive warfare. This breach carries particular significance as it represents the first major forced border change in Europe since 1945. If the anticipated validation of territorial annexations occurs following the January 2025 political transition in the United States, it risks triggering a cascade of similar territorial challenges globally, particularly regarding China’s ambitions vis-à-vis Taiwan, which controls 92 percent of advanced semiconductor production.

2. Beyond Realpolitik: The Defense of Enlightenment Values

The West’s support for Ukraine transcends traditional geopolitical calculations, representing a broader ideological struggle between liberal democracy and rising authoritarian forces. This conflict has evolved into a modern Kulturkampf where Ukraine, under Jewish President Volodymyr Zelensky’s leadership, symbolizes the defense of Enlightenment values against looming illiberal trends in both Europe and America.

Zelensky’s Jewish identity carries particular significance in this ideological battle. Ukraine’s transformation from a historically antisemitic society into one led by a Jewish president during its greatest existential crisis is emblematic of the triumph of liberal democratic values over ethnic nationalism. This narrative has resonated deeply with Western audiences, who see in Ukraine’s struggle a reflection of their own commitment to pluralism and democratic principles.

The metaphysical dimension of this conflict – casting Zelensky as a beacon of democratic hope against Putin’s authoritarian expansionism – has helped mobilize large-scale Western support. Beyond the practical concerns about potential Russian encroachment into Poland, Romania or Moldova, Western nations view this as a battle for the preservation of the post-war liberal order. Russia’s violation of Westphalian principles represents not just a challenge to territorial sovereignty but an assault on the foundational values of the Enlightenment: rational governance, individual rights, and the rule of law.

This ideological framing has transformed what might have remained a regional conflict into a defining struggle for Western civilization’s core principles. The West’s massive military and economic support for Ukraine represents more than strategic calculation – it demonstrates a philosophical commitment to defending liberal democracy against the rising tide of authoritarianism.

3. The West’s Strategic Failure: A Self-Defeating Hesitation

The Russia-Ukraine war has transformed into a war of attrition without a clear path to victory for either side, marking a strategic failure that has pushed Russia firmly into China’s orbit. This deadlock is particularly striking given that the European Union’s combined GDP is roughly ten times that of Russia. The failure to translate this enormous economic advantage into decisive military support reveals a fundamental lack of political will rather than capability. This deficit becomes glaringly apparent when considering that North Korea – technologically and economically challenged – has reportedly supplied more artillery shells to Russia in the past year than the entire EU has provided to Ukraine, despite the EU counting four of the world’s ten largest arms exporters among its members. This strategic torpor, while rooted in legitimate nuclear deterrence concerns, has ultimately undermined Western influence and reshaped global alliances. Western nations, constrained by fears of Russian escalation, particularly given its nuclear capabilities, have effectively self-limited their support, creating a paradox where their caution in preventing catastrophe may have invited a different kind of strategic disaster.³

Ukraine faces considerable internal challenges beyond troop and weaponry shortages, including governance inefficiencies and corruption. Its military leadership has encountered difficulties in developing feasible strategic plans. Meanwhile, Western allies have evinced a lack of unified strategy, reflecting deeper European divisions. National interests vary significantly based on geographic proximity to Russia and historical relationships – Poland’s security priorities differ fundamentally from Portugal’s, making it challenging to establish a cohesive EU policy. This fragmented response has inadvertently strengthened the position of Russia’s new allies, particularly China.

Resource constraints further compound these challenges. Western defense industries were unprepared for the demands of high-intensity warfare, leading to significant production and supply chain limitations. While European military aid to Ukraine has been substantial – over €50 billion (approximately $54 billion) in total, including €11.1 billion (around $12 billion) from the European Peace Facility and €28 billion (roughly $30 billion) from Germany alone – it has fallen short of providing the decisive advantage needed to secure victory.⁴ This reluctance to supply Ukraine with sufficient military equipment to decisively defeat Russia reflects strategic caution and underscores limitations in manufacturing capacity and financial commitment. Consequently, what could have been a defining moment for Western power projection has turned into a prolonged stalemate, benefiting Russia and its new strategic partners while highlighting vulnerabilities in the West’s ability to respond to global challenges effectively.⁵

After three years of conflict the war between Ukraine and Russia is still raging fiercely. While Ukraine has managed to retake substantial territory, Russia still controls around 20 percent of Ukrainian land. The Ukrainian military has suffered a significant number of casualties, with estimates suggesting they have reached around 80,000. Russian losses are even higher, exceeding 200,000 troops, including over 3,600 tanks destroyed. Despite facing infantry shortages, Ukraine has increasingly acquired NATO-supplied weapons and advanced drone technology. Russia, for its part, has mobilized more than 500,000 additional troops and is rapidly depleting its inventory of Soviet-era military hardware, but has compensated for this through deepening partnerships with China, Iran, and North Korea. The Ukrainian public remains steadfast in rejecting any territorial concessions, even as both sides incur mounting casualties and economic strain. The prospect of Donald Trump potentially ending the war could lead to pressure for a negotiated settlement, but major obstacles remain. With both Ukraine and Russia growing increasingly fatigued, the conflict appears nowhere close to resolution, while the global strategic landscape has shifted dramatically against Western interests.

4. The Resulting Global Realignment

As a direct consequence of Western strategic failures, the unified support for Ukraine, contrasted with the more ambivalent or pro-Russian stance of Global South and non-Western nations, has encouraged Russia to accelerate its alignment with an emerging anti-Western axis. This realignment appears as the latest swing in Russia’s centuries-old pendulum between East and West – a movement first set in motion by Peter the Great’s (1682-1725) ambitious Westernization program. Indeed, the contemporary global landscape has witnessed a decisive shift from the unipolar world that emerged following the Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989 to an increasingly unpredictable multipolar system. Russia’s strategic reorientation, now swinging decisively eastward, has led to closer alignment with Iran, China, North Korea, Hamas, and Hezbollah, as evidenced by the discovery of Russian weapons in Hezbollah’s arsenal. This military cooperation is further demonstrated by a 40-billion-dollar investment agreement between Russia and Iran in the petroleum sector.⁶

The conflict has dramatically altered global energy markets, with Qatar’s revenues increasing by 40 percent during the crisis period. Iranian oil revenues have surged by 50 percent post-sanctions, enabling increased support for global terrorism, European Islamist movements, and organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah.⁷ Russian exports to China have increased threefold, attesting to a dramatic eastward shift in energy flows.

The economic impact of the Ukraine war extends far beyond energy markets, with particularly severe consequences for Arab and African nations. While we do not elaborate on wider economic consequences beyond energy such as disruptions in grain exports, supply chain challenges, or global financial market effects in this study, it is worth noting that grain export disruptions have significantly impacted key regional players like Egypt and Jordan, further destabilizing their already fragile economies. Egypt, as the world’s largest wheat importer, and Jordan, heavily dependent on food imports, have faced substantial economic pressures due to these disruptions.⁸

5. Russia’s Fall from Power: From Superpower to China’s Vassal

Russia’s failure to achieve its anticipated swift victory over Ukraine – initially planned as a matter of days – has diminished its status as a global superpower. Although Russia maintains its nuclear arsenal and vast infantry resources, the conflict has exposed critical weaknesses in its military equipment, logistics, and strategic management. This revelation has reshaped power dynamics not only with its Western adversaries but also with China, which now views Russia more clearly as a junior partner rather than a peer power. Indeed, China, which historically avoids equal strategic partnerships, has positioned itself to exploit Russia’s weakened state, effectively turning it into a dependent vassal. Even Israel, which had carefully calibrated its actions in Syria to avoid Russian provocation, has revised its assessment of Russian military prowess. The image of Russia as an invincible military force has been supplanted by that of a compromised nuclear power with significant conventional military limitations, fundamentally altering the global geopolitical calculus.

6. China’s Strategic Triumph: The Unexpected Beneficiary of Western Miscalculation

The Ukraine war has dramatically enhanced China’s global position, transforming potential vulnerabilities into strategic advantages. Initially watching the conflict with concern about the potential impact of Western sanctions on its own future scenarios, Beijing has emerged as perhaps the greatest beneficiary of this geopolitical upheaval.

Russia’s international isolation has fundamentally shifted the power dynamic in the Sino-Russian relationship. Moscow, once the senior partner in this relationship, has become increasingly dependent on Beijing for economic and diplomatic support. This has resulted in China securing Russian energy at heavily discounted prices, with Russian oil exports to China increasing by over 300% since the war began. The relationship has evolved into one of clear Chinese dominance, with Russia becoming a subordinate providing raw materials and military technology while growing increasingly reliant on Chinese technology and financial systems.

China has also strengthened its position in Central Asia, traditionally Russia’s sphere of influence. As Russia’s attention and resources are diverted to Ukraine, China has expanded its economic and diplomatic presence in the region through enhanced Belt and Road Initiative investments and bilateral agreements. This has accelerated the reorientation of former Soviet states toward Beijing’s orbit.

Moreover, China has masterfully exploited the conflict to advance its global influence, particularly in the Global South. By positioning itself as a neutral party and peace advocate while simultaneously supporting Russia economically, China has presented itself as a more reliable partner than the West for developing nations. This stance has been particularly effective in Africa and Latin America, where Chinese influence has grown significantly.

The war has also accelerated the de-dollarization process, a long-term Chinese strategic objective. As Western sanctions demonstrated the risks of dollar dependency, many countries have increased their use of Chinese yuan in international trade and reserves. The expansion of BRICS and the growing interest in alternative payment systems have further enhanced China’s global financial influence.

Perhaps most significantly, the conflict has provided China with valuable military and strategic lessons regarding Western responses to large-scale aggression, potential sanctions, and technological vulnerabilities. These insights are particularly relevant to Beijing’s Taiwan considerations, allowing China to refine its strategic planning and sanctions-proofing efforts.

The distraction of Western attention and resources toward Ukraine has also enabled China to strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific, expanding its military presence and economic influence while the United States and its allies focus on European security. This strategic breathing room has allowed Beijing to advance its regional objectives with reduced Western interference.

China has emerged as an indispensable player in any future global security architecture. Its potential role as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict, whether realized or not, has elevated its diplomatic status and reinforced its position as a global power capable of operating independently of Western-led international systems.

Furthermore, China’s emergence as the leader of this anti-Western axis has significant implications for Jewish interests.⁹ Despite previous strong economic ties with Israel, including major investments in Israeli technology and infrastructure, China has aligned itself with Israel’s adversaries. Its refusal to condemn Hamas and the rise of antisemitism in Chinese discourse marks a concerning shift from previous philosemitic attitudes.¹⁰ As China strengthens its partnerships with Iran and Russia while leading an expanded BRICS coalition, its transformation from economic partner to strategic adversary represents a major threat to Israeli and Jewish interests globally.

7. Strategic Opportunism: How Traditional US Allies Leverage the New Global Disorder

As the West’s strategic failure and Russia’s realignment refashion the global landscape, several key regional powers have seized the opportunity to assert their strategic independence and enhance their global position. This shift is particularly evident in the responses of traditional US allies who have masterfully exploited the situation to their advantage.¹¹

Turkey has emerged as a major beneficiary of this strategic upheaval, adopting what it terms “active neutrality.” With $34.7 billion in trade with Russia (2021) and nearly 7 million Russian tourists annually, alongside strategic military purchases like the S-400 air defense system, Turkey has maintained crucial ties with Moscow. This “pragmatic complicity” has secured Turkish freedom of action in Syria while simultaneously allowing Turkey to supply Bayraktar combat drones to Ukraine and maintain $7.4 billion in Ukrainian trade (2021).¹²

Turkey’s balanced approach – condemning Russian aggression while refusing to join sanctions – culminated in a diplomatic triumph with the Black Sea Grain Initiative of July 2022. This agreement established a “grain corridor” and joint coordination center, positioning Turkey as an indispensable mediator and confirming its role as a “pivotal state” in the Black Sea region. This strategic position has enabled Turkey to enhance its regional influence while maintaining independence from Western policy directives. The December 2024 fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to Turkish-backed jihadist forces has demonstrated the effectiveness of Erdogan’s strategic calculations in leveraging regional instability to expand Turkish influence.

Saudi Arabia is another striking example of this strategic pivot. Long at odds with the United States over multiple issues – from the perceived abandonment of Mubarak in 2011 to the treatment of Saudi Arabia as a “pariah state” following the Khashoggi assassination – the kingdom has skillfully leveraged the crisis to reinforce its strategic autonomy. While formally “deploring the Russian invasion” on March 2, 2022, Saudi Arabia has refused to implement sanctions or increase oil production to offset Russian losses. The October 2022 OPEC+ decision to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day, perceived as a direct snub to the US, exemplifies this new assertiveness. Saudi newspapers have explicitly framed this as a transition to a “multipolar system,” deliberately avoiding placing sole responsibility on Russia for what they describe as “a confrontation between great powers for world hegemony.”¹³

This strategic recalibration predates the Ukraine conflict but has accelerated significantly since. The kingdom has pursued deeper ties with Russia, as evidenced by Prince Khaled Ben Salman’s participation in the Moscow Arms Fair in August 2021 and the signing of the 2022 Military Cooperation Agreement. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia has executed a decisive “pivot towards Asia,” becoming China’s main oil supplier with bilateral trade reaching $87 billion in 2021. The December 2022 triple summit in Riyadh – bringing together China-Saudi Arabia, China-Gulf Cooperation Council, and China-Arab countries with President Xi Jinping’s presence – marked a clear declaration of strategic independence.¹⁴

While other regions have demonstrated strategic recalibration – from Japan’s military budget increases to African nations’ diverse diplomatic positioning – the evolution of these traditional US allies shows how the conflict has accelerated the erosion of Western influence, creating opportunities for regional powers to enhance their strategic autonomy and global influence. Their success in leveraging the crisis while maintaining strategic ambiguity presents a clear model for other nations seeking to navigate and benefit from the emerging multipolar order.

8. Traditional Enemies Gain Power: Strengthening Anti-Jewish Actors

The war’s most significant global impact has been the complete transformation of energy markets, creating powerful beneficiaries whose increased influence directly threatens Jewish interests worldwide. Most alarmingly, this has led to the strengthening of actors who actively fund and support organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, while simultaneously promoting radical Islamist movements across the West.

Qatar has become Europe’s essential gas supplier, increasing its export volumes to Europe by 65 percent in 2023. This shift extends beyond energy supply; Qatar has emerged as a crucial financial partner for several European nations, particularly France, where it maintains significant investments in major companies and real estate. This dual role as energy provider and financial power has enabled Qatar to expand its influence across Europe while limiting European nations’ capacity to address concerns about its broader regional agenda.

Iran’s alliance with Russia represents perhaps the most significant strategic development. Iran’s supply of over 7,000 combat drones to Russia and the establishment of joint production facilities targeting 6,000 additional units has generated over $2.5 billion in revenue.¹⁵ Beyond immediate financial benefits, this partnership has granted Iran access to advanced Russian military technology, including sophisticated air defense systems and satellite capabilities.¹⁶ Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has gained valuable operational experience through direct involvement in drone operations against Ukraine, enhancing its military capabilities and regional influence.

Russia, despite Western sanctions, has successfully redirected its energy exports to Asian markets while maintaining significant revenue streams.¹⁷ Its defense industry has expanded dramatically, now employing 3.5 million workers in continuous shifts and producing 2.5 million artillery shells annually.¹⁸ This military-industrial expansion, supplemented by North Korean contributions of approximately 1 million shells,¹⁹ demonstrates Russia’s successful transition to a war economy and its growing alignment with an anti-Western axis.

This transformed strategic landscape, where traditional adversaries have gained significant power through energy leverage, military cooperation, and diplomatic maneuverability, represents perhaps the most concerning unintended consequence of Western sanctions policy. From a Jewish perspective, this shift is particularly alarming as it has strengthened states historically hostile to Jewish interests, particularly those funding anti-Jewish organizations and radical movements, creating a more threatening regional environment where anti-Western powers have gained unprecedented influence and military capabilities.