Introduction

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine violated the Westphalian principles of state sovereignty and territorial integrity that have underpinned international relations since 1648. While not unprecedented in European history, the sheer audacity of one nation attempting to negate another’s sovereignty has triggered two seismic global shifts: first, a profound geopolitical realignment has redrawn traditional alliances; second, a fundamental shift in ethical and normative frameworks has reshaped Europe’s political landscape.

These transformations have particularly destabilized the liberal international order – an environment in which Jewish communities have historically thrived – leading to four distinct impacts on Jewish life: the largest Jewish displacement since the 1990s, with over 100,000 Ukrainian and Russian Jews seeking refuge elsewhere; the strengthening of states traditionally hostile to Jewish interests; a surge in both far-right nationalism and far-left extremism across Europe, fueling antisemitism and Jewish discomfort; and, paradoxically, deeper security cooperation between Israel and European nations. The following pages will examine these two global transformations in detail before exploring their specific implications for Israel and European Jewish communities.

A third, more recent shift in global power politics has upended the traditional transatlantic balance of power. The United States, historically the anchor of NATO and Europe’s closest security partner, has begun a strategic pivot toward Russia, breaking with decades of Cold War and post-Cold War alignment. This reversal has effectively split the world into three competing blocs: the U.S.-Russia partnership, an increasingly assertive China, and a fragmented Europe, which now faces a stark dilemma. European leaders must choose between fully committing to Ukraine’s defense – including direct military engagement and risking a global war – or aligning with Washington’s new realpolitik approach that deprioritizes Ukraine’s sovereignty.

If European leaders decide to defend Ukraine effectively, they will have no choice but to drastically reassess their budget priorities, significantly expand military production, and prepare their societies for a long-term confrontation with Russia. This shift would demand an unprecedented militarization of Europe, forcing governments to divert massive financial resources away from social programs and public services toward defense industries – a move that could prove politically toxic among voters already facing economic hardship. The question remains whether European nations, accustomed to decades of peace and welfare-state policies, are prepared to make such a sacrifice to stop Russia’s advance.

In this new configuration, Israel has seemingly opted to align with the U.S.-Russia axis, a decision that has already begun to reshape its diplomatic standing. This shift was starkly illustrated by the February 28, 2025, Oval Office confrontation between Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, where the White House appeared to berate Zelensky and pressure Ukraine into accepting Russian demands. Just days earlier, on February 24, 2025, Israel made a decisive break from its previously neutral stance at the United Nations, voting against a resolution reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity, siding with the United States and Russia – a move that drew sharp criticism from Ukraine, the European Union, and American Jewish leaders. In a second UN vote, Israel abstained from a U.S.-backed resolution calling for an end to the war, after European amendments introduced explicit condemnation of Russian aggression. This diplomatic maneuvering underscores Israel’s emerging alignment with Washington’s evolving foreign policy, while highlighting the growing divide between the U.S.-Russia axis and a Europe that remains committed to Ukraine’s defense but faces mounting financial, military, and political costs in doing so.

This shift is likely to increase tensions between Israel and European countries and embarrass European Jewish communities, which often find themselves caught between their national identity and their connection to Israel.

Looking forward, four emerging dimensions from the Ukraine conflict merit particular attention: economic sanctions as strategic weapons, the growing role of international law institutions, information warfare, and private sector involvement in military conflicts. While beyond the scope of this study, these aspects warrant dedicated research as they could significantly shape Israel’s future security challenges in our evolving global environment.